Spread: Seahawks (-5.5)

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Seahawks (71%) · Seahawks at 95¢ · $14K held · ended Oct 26

Seahawks95¢Chiefs5¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Seahawks

Consensus Traders

Seahawks 71%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.6K

Combined PnL

$375.48

Smart Money Entry

63.2¢ → 95¢

+50% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralSeahawks at 95%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Seahawks

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Seahawks95%

Chiefs5%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Seahawks5 traders

Total Value$7.0K

Total Shares10,749

Combined PnL+$268.97

Chiefs2 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares5,411

Combined PnL+$106.51

Seahawks — 71%Chiefs — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE	Seahawksavg 67¢	$6.1K	$6.1K	+$0.05	54% 1101-948 (2049)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Chiefsavg 41.6¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$75.65	56% 2221-1759 (3980)
└ Seahawks leg	Seahawksavg 50¢	$1.0K	$1.3K	+$334.55
└ Chiefs leg	Chiefsavg 41.6¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$258.91
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Chiefsavg 33¢	$1.8K	$2.3K	+$521.49	55% 12853-10588 (23441)
└ Chiefs leg	Chiefsavg 33¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$350
└ Seahawks leg	Seahawksavg 45.7¢	$727	$898.49	+$171.49
RN1CTR	Chiefsavg 31.2¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$106.46	55% 47028-39201 (86229)
SU SunlineTicker	Seahawksavg 40¢	$619.2	$851.4	+$270.9	67% 3627-1751 (5378)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Seahawksavg 76.2¢	$62.46	$61.1	-$1.36	52% 7299-6610 (13909)
CH chiefphi<$100	Seahawksavg 68¢	$7.94	$7.83	-$0.12	56% 69-54 (123)
TA takeormake<$100	Seahawksavg 60¢	$6	$5.5	-$0.5	55% 3160-2554 (5714)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Chiefsavg 32¢	$1.6	$1.65	+$0.05	51% 4547-4285 (8832)

TAIWANNUMBERONE

Seahawks

Invested

$6,095.32

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$0.05

Record

54%

1101-948 (2049)

Anon455ARB<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$2,346.28

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$75.65

Record

56%

2221-1759 (3980)

Both legs:

Seahawks$1,013.850¢+$334.55

Chiefs$1,332.4841.6¢-$258.91

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$1,827

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$521.49

Record

55%

12853-10588 (23441)

Both legs:

Chiefs$1,10033¢+$350

Seahawks$72745.7¢+$171.49

RN1CTR

Chiefs

Invested

$1,720.5

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$106.46

Record

55%

47028-39201 (86229)

SunlineTicker

Seahawks

Invested

$619.2

Value

$851.4

PnL

+$270.9

Record

67%

3627-1751 (5378)

justaluckydude<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$62.46

Value

$61.1

PnL

-$1.36

Record

52%

7299-6610 (13909)

chiefphi<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$7.94

Value

$7.83

PnL

-$0.12

Record

56%

69-54 (123)

takeormake<$100

Seahawks

Invested

Value

$5.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

55%

3160-2554 (5714)

RLWGCTR<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$1.6

Value

$1.65

PnL

+$0.05

Record

51%

4547-4285 (8832)

Research grade

NeutralSeahawks at 95%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Seahawks

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Seahawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.2%

95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.