Spread: Seahawks (-4.5)

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Seahawks (89%) · Seahawks at 96¢ · $15K held · ended Oct 26

Seahawks96¢Chiefs4¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Seahawks

Consensus Traders

Seahawks 89%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.0K

Combined PnL

$3.9K

Smart Money Entry

45.2¢ → 96¢

+112% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralSeahawks at 96%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Seahawks

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Seahawks96%

Chiefs4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Seahawks8 traders

Total Value$14.1K

Total Shares22,892

Combined PnL+$3.8K

Chiefs1 trader

Total Value$762.67

Total Shares2,536

Combined PnL+$157.94

Seahawks — 89%Chiefs — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Seahawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSeahawks 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrSeahawks 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedSeahawks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Seahawks 100% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CH chubbytoro	Seahawksavg 41¢	$8.2K	$12.0K	+$3.8K	47% 72-80 (152)
Nooserac	Seahawksavg 77¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$11.96	52% 5453-5004 (10457)
RN1CTR	Chiefsavg 23.3¢	$604.73	$762.67	+$157.94	55% 47028-39201 (86229)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Chiefsavg 35.3¢	$185.7	$132.19	-$53.51	52% 7299-6610 (13909)
└ Chiefs leg	Chiefsavg 35.3¢	$154.57	$94.17	-$60.4
└ Seahawks leg	Seahawksavg 64.3¢	$31.13	$38.02	+$6.89
TA takeormake	Seahawksavg 62.8¢	$136.32	$130.2	-$6.12	55% 3160-2554 (5714)
latvian.demon	Seahawksavg 72¢	$100	$95.14	-$4.86	53% 567-494 (1061)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Seahawksavg 60¢	$32.76	$32.76	+$0	49% 3350-3443 (6793)
VeryLucky888<$100	Seahawksavg 41¢	$10.42	$15.25	+$0.13	58% 34591-25199 (59790)
AN Anon455<$100	Seahawksavg 41¢	$6.95	$10.17	-$0.76	56% 2221-1759 (3980)
RL RLWG<$100	Seahawksavg 54¢	$2.7	$3	+$0.3	51% 4547-4285 (8832)

chubbytoro

Seahawks

Invested

$8,217.14

Value

$12.0K

PnL

+$3.8K

Record

47%

72-80 (152)

Nooserac

Seahawks

Invested

$1,841.84

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$11.96

Record

52%

5453-5004 (10457)

RN1CTR

Chiefs

Invested

$604.73

Value

$762.67

PnL

+$157.94

Record

55%

47028-39201 (86229)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$185.7

Value

$132.19

PnL

-$53.51

Record

52%

7299-6610 (13909)

Both legs:

Chiefs$154.5735.3¢-$60.4

Seahawks$31.1364.3¢+$6.89

takeormake

Seahawks

Invested

$136.32

Value

$130.2

PnL

-$6.12

Record

55%

3160-2554 (5714)

latvian.demon

Seahawks

Invested

$100

Value

$95.14

PnL

-$4.86

Record

53%

567-494 (1061)

NatoAlfista<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$32.76

Value

$32.76

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

3350-3443 (6793)

VeryLucky888<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$10.42

Value

$15.25

PnL

+$0.13

Record

58%

34591-25199 (59790)

Anon455<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$6.95

Value

$10.17

PnL

-$0.76

Record

56%

2221-1759 (3980)

RLWG<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$2.7

Value

PnL

+$0.3

Record

51%

4547-4285 (8832)

Research grade

NeutralSeahawks at 96%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Seahawks

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Seahawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSeahawks 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrSeahawks 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedSeahawks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Seahawks 100% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Seahawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.1%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.