Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Chiefs, while the market favors Seahawks (71%). 13 of 24 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Seahawks (-3.5)

13 of 24 top Polymarket traders hold Chiefs (54%) · Chiefs at 30¢ · $98K held · ended Oct 26

Seahawks71¢Chiefs29¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Chiefs

Consensus Traders

Chiefs 54%

Total Value

$97.8K

Combined PnL

$227.46

Smart Money Entry

55¢ → 29.5¢

-46% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

AvoidChiefs at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Chiefs

13 of 24 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors Seahawks 71%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Seahawks71%

Chiefs30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Chiefs13 traders

Total Value$58.9K

Total Shares101,005

Combined PnL+$2.3K

Seahawks11 traders

Total Value$38.9K

Total Shares91,158

Combined PnL$-2.1K

Chiefs — 54%Seahawks — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

53% of non-arb traders are on Chiefs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleChiefs 67% · 6

Aligned

sharpChiefs 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrSeahawks 60% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedChiefs 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Chiefs 54% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Chiefsavg 55.1¢	$26.3K	$27.9K	+$1.6K	46% 499-595 (1094)
MO mooseborzoii	Seahawksavg 42.9¢	$13.9K	$13.5K	-$442.75	50% 1042-1039 (2081)
0X 0x418D51e13d019913BB027DB22ECc723fe1AD88A3-1720918577961CTR	Chiefsavg 56¢	$11.2K	$11.7K	+$500	47% 210-234 (444)
CH chubbytoro	Seahawksavg 44¢	$12.2K	$11.5K	-$694.59	49% 72-76 (148)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Chiefsavg 56.3¢	$5.8K	$5.8K	-$44.53	55% 12568-10337 (22905)
RN1CTR	Chiefsavg 56.9¢	$4.9K	$5.0K	+$49.71	55% 46138-38317 (84455)
LI lightotunnel35	Seahawksavg 57¢	$4.0K	$3.9K	-$106.19	53% 38-34 (72)
JU Justluck9	Seahawksavg 45¢	$3.9K	$3.6K	-$305.8	41% 84-123 (207)
RO roldyCTR	Chiefsavg 56¢	$2.8K	$2.9K	+$125	61% 1362-869 (2231)
BA Bagwell306	Seahawksavg 45¢	$2.7K	$2.5K	-$210	67% 3257-1628 (4885)
JA JAMJAMJAM4CTR	Chiefsavg 56¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$17.85	82% 3312-728 (4040)
HONGKONGPEACH	Seahawksavg 47¢	$2.0K	$1.7K	-$230.24	49% 276-284 (560)
AN Anon455CTR	Chiefsavg 46.8¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$27.39	56% 2130-1695 (3825)
VeryLucky888	Seahawksavg 43.9¢	$2.2K	$1.3K	-$56.45	58% 33858-24647 (58505)
heyboy800CTR	Chiefsavg 39¢	$780	$880	+$100	61% 807-506 (1313)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Chiefsavg 51.9¢	$664.17	$595.56	-$68.61	68% 33658-15496 (49154)
0X 0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3CTR	Chiefsavg 51¢	$510	$585	+$75	45% 369-459 (828)
PR primm	Seahawksavg 46¢	$501.47	$452.54	-$48.94	46% 1003-1198 (2201)
JU justaluckydude	Seahawksavg 60.3¢	$252.09	$252.35	+$0.26	52% 7071-6423 (13494)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Chiefsavg 43¢	$86	$84	-$2	55% 3104-2515 (5619)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Seahawksavg 44¢	$53.67	$50.62	-$3.05	55% 15069-12329 (27398)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Seahawksavg 44¢	$23.32	$23.32	+$0.27	49% 3314-3402 (6716)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Chiefsavg 58¢	$2.9	$2.92	+$0.02	51% 4438-4219 (8657)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Chiefsavg 58¢	$2.9	$2.92	+$0.02	51% 1056-1017 (2073)

BreakTheBankCTR

Chiefs

Invested

$26,326.68

Value

$27.9K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

46%

499-595 (1094)

mooseborzoii

Seahawks

Invested

$13,931.03

Value

$13.5K

PnL

-$442.75

Record

50%

1042-1039 (2081)

0x418D51e13d019913BB027DB22ECc723fe1AD88A3-1720918577961CTR

Chiefs

Invested

$11,200

Value

$11.7K

PnL

+$500

Record

47%

210-234 (444)

chubbytoro

Seahawks

Invested

$12,224.8

Value

$11.5K

PnL

-$694.59

Record

49%

72-76 (148)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Chiefs

Invested

$5,836.65

Value

$5.8K

PnL

-$44.53

Record

55%

12568-10337 (22905)

RN1CTR

Chiefs

Invested

$4,930.46

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$49.71

Record

55%

46138-38317 (84455)

lightotunnel35

Seahawks

Invested

$4,041.96

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$106.19

Record

53%

38-34 (72)

Justluck9

Seahawks

Invested

$3,931.65

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$305.8

Record

41%

84-123 (207)

roldyCTR

Chiefs

Invested

$2,800

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$125

Record

61%

1362-869 (2231)

Bagwell306

Seahawks

Invested

$2,700

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$210

Record

67%

3257-1628 (4885)

JAMJAMJAM4CTR

Chiefs

Invested

$1,999.2

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$17.85

Record

82%

3312-728 (4040)

HONGKONGPEACH

Seahawks

Invested

$1,967.48

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$230.24

Record

49%

276-284 (560)

Anon455CTR

Chiefs

Invested

$1,471.3

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$27.39

Record

56%

2130-1695 (3825)

VeryLucky888

Seahawks

Invested

$2,179.25

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$56.45

Record

58%

33858-24647 (58505)

heyboy800CTR

Chiefs

Invested

$780

Value

$880

PnL

+$100

Record

61%

807-506 (1313)

UpTheBluesCTR

Chiefs

Invested

$664.17

Value

$595.56

PnL

-$68.61

Record

68%

33658-15496 (49154)

0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3CTR

Chiefs

Invested

$510

Value

$585

PnL

+$75

Record

45%

369-459 (828)

primm

Seahawks

Invested

$501.47

Value

$452.54

PnL

-$48.94

Record

46%

1003-1198 (2201)

justaluckydude

Seahawks

Invested

$252.09

Value

$252.35

PnL

+$0.26

Record

52%

7071-6423 (13494)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$86

Value

$84

PnL

-$2

Record

55%

3104-2515 (5619)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$53.67

Value

$50.62

PnL

-$3.05

Record

55%

15069-12329 (27398)

NatoAlfista<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$23.32

Value

$23.32

PnL

+$0.27

Record

49%

3314-3402 (6716)

RLWGCTR<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$2.9

Value

$2.92

PnL

+$0.02

Record

51%

4438-4219 (8657)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$2.9

Value

$2.92

PnL

+$0.02

Record

51%

1056-1017 (2073)

Research grade

AvoidChiefs at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Chiefs

13 of 24 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors Seahawks 71%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

53% of non-arb traders are on Chiefs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleChiefs 67% · 6

Aligned

sharpChiefs 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrSeahawks 60% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedChiefs 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Chiefs 54% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Chiefs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance31.6%

29.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$216.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

316.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.