Spread: Seahawks (-1.5)

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Seahawks (75%) · Seahawks at 83¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 26

Seahawks83¢Chiefs17¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Seahawks

Consensus Traders

Seahawks 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.5K

Combined PnL

$23.96

Smart Money Entry

58.3¢ → 82.5¢

+41% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralSeahawks at 83%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Seahawks

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Seahawks83%

Chiefs18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Seahawks6 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares4,272

Combined PnL+$18.5

Chiefs2 traders

Total Value$485.88

Total Shares1,092

Combined PnL+$5.46

Seahawks — 75%Chiefs — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Seahawksavg 58¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$1.57	55% 46138-38317 (84455)
└ Seahawks leg	Seahawksavg 58¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$64.15
└ Chiefs leg	Chiefsavg 42¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$62.58
UP UpTheBlues	Seahawksavg 58¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$56.64	68% 33658-15496 (49154)
MO mooseborzoii	Seahawksavg 58¢	$545.59	$522.07	-$23.52	50% 1042-1039 (2081)
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Chiefsavg 44¢	$477.78	$483.21	+$5.43	46% 499-595 (1094)
AN Anon455	Seahawksavg 58¢	$184.89	$177.09	-$7.8	56% 2130-1695 (3825)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Seahawksavg 56¢	$67.76	$67.16	-$0.61	49% 3314-3402 (6716)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Seahawksavg 79.9¢	$63.25	$56.76	-$6.5	52% 7071-6423 (13494)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Seahawksavg 58¢	$10.61	$10.89	+$0.27	55% 12568-10337 (22905)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Chiefsavg 44¢	$2.64	$2.67	+$0.03	55% 3104-2515 (5619)

RN1ARB<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$2,539.54

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$1.57

Record

55%

46138-38317 (84455)

Both legs:

Seahawks$1,488.2858¢-$64.15

Chiefs$1,051.2642¢+$62.58

UpTheBlues

Seahawks

Invested

$1,630.92

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$56.64

Record

68%

33658-15496 (49154)

mooseborzoii

Seahawks

Invested

$545.59

Value

$522.07

PnL

-$23.52

Record

50%

1042-1039 (2081)

BreakTheBankCTR

Chiefs

Invested

$477.78

Value

$483.21

PnL

+$5.43

Record

46%

499-595 (1094)

Anon455

Seahawks

Invested

$184.89

Value

$177.09

PnL

-$7.8

Record

56%

2130-1695 (3825)

NatoAlfista<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$67.76

Value

$67.16

PnL

-$0.61

Record

49%

3314-3402 (6716)

justaluckydude<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$63.25

Value

$56.76

PnL

-$6.5

Record

52%

7071-6423 (13494)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$10.61

Value

$10.89

PnL

+$0.27

Record

55%

12568-10337 (22905)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$2.64

Value

$2.67

PnL

+$0.03

Record

55%

3104-2515 (5619)

Research grade

NeutralSeahawks at 83%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Seahawks

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Seahawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.