Spread: Seahawks (-16.5)
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Chiefs (29%) · Chiefs at 72¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Chiefs
7
Chiefs 29%
1 arb excluded
$4.6K
$425.37
80¢ → 72¢
-10% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralChiefs at 72%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RE redvinny | Chiefsavg 89.9¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | -$25.83 | 75% 1361-449 (1810) |
CH chiefphi | Chiefsavg 66¢ | $1.4K | $1.8K | +$471.96 | 56% 69-54 (123) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Seahawksavg 34¢ | $251.19 | $163.12 | -$88.07 | 55% 47028-39201 (86229) |
| └ Chiefs leg | Chiefsavg 72¢ | $89.69 | $110.87 | +$21.18 | |
| └ Seahawks leg | Seahawksavg 34¢ | $161.5 | $52.25 | -$109.25 | |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Seahawksavg 12.3¢ | $26.76 | $23.98 | -$2.78 | 62% 4966-3093 (8059) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Seahawksavg 28¢ | $26.74 | $10.51 | -$16.24 | 69% 34652-15570 (50222) |
TA takeormakeCTR<$100 | Seahawksavg 32¢ | $5.87 | $4.12 | -$1.74 | 55% 3160-2554 (5714) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Seahawksavg 8¢ | $0.57 | $0.78 | +$0.21 | 56% 10449-8249 (18698) |
PR primmCTR<$100 | Seahawksavg 27¢ | $0.37 | $0.15 | -$0.22 | 46% 1015-1203 (2218) |
Invested
$2,624.63
Value
$2.6K
PnL
-$25.83
Record
75%
1361-449 (1810)
Invested
$1,354.32
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$471.96
Record
56%
69-54 (123)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$251.19
Value
$163.12
PnL
-$88.07
Record
55%
47028-39201 (86229)
Both legs:
Invested
$26.76
Value
$23.98
PnL
-$2.78
Record
62%
4966-3093 (8059)
Invested
$26.74
Value
$10.51
PnL
-$16.24
Record
69%
34652-15570 (50222)
Invested
$5.87
Value
$4.12
PnL
-$1.74
Record
55%
3160-2554 (5714)
Invested
$0.57
Value
$0.78
PnL
+$0.21
Record
56%
10449-8249 (18698)
Invested
$0.37
Value
$0.15
PnL
-$0.22
Record
46%
1015-1203 (2218)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.