Spread: Seahawks (-14.5)

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Chiefs (22%) · Chiefs at 70¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 26

Seahawks30¢Chiefs70¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Chiefs

Consensus Traders

Chiefs 22%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

-$29.78

Smart Money Entry

83.8¢ → 70¢

-16% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralChiefs at 70%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Chiefs

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Seahawks30%

Chiefs70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Chiefs2 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,805

Combined PnL+$65.81

Seahawks7 traders

Total Value$935.05

Total Shares3,524

Combined PnL-$95.59

Chiefs — 22%Seahawks — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RE redvinny	Chiefsavg 88.3¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$11.34	75% 1361-449 (1810)
RN1CTR	Seahawksavg 25.3¢	$633.16	$620.82	-$12.34	55% 47028-39201 (86229)
AN Anon455	Chiefsavg 66.1¢	$244.26	$321.4	+$77.15	56% 2221-1759 (3980)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Seahawksavg 33.9¢	$304.51	$269.4	-$35.11	52% 7299-6610 (13909)
PR primmCTR<$100	Seahawksavg 35.6¢	$44.97	$15.81	-$29.16	46% 1015-1203 (2218)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Seahawksavg 13.5¢	$14.82	$13.75	-$1.07	62% 4966-3093 (8059)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Seahawksavg 33¢	$26.73	$10.13	-$16.61	69% 34652-15570 (50222)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Seahawksavg 32¢	$5.87	$4.49	-$1.37	55% 3160-2554 (5714)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Seahawksavg 11¢	$0.58	$0.66	+$0.08	56% 10449-8249 (18698)

redvinny

Chiefs

Invested

$1,267.84

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$11.34

Record

75%

1361-449 (1810)

RN1CTR

Seahawks

Invested

$633.16

Value

$620.82

PnL

-$12.34

Record

55%

47028-39201 (86229)

Anon455

Chiefs

Invested

$244.26

Value

$321.4

PnL

+$77.15

Record

56%

2221-1759 (3980)

justaluckydudeCTR

Seahawks

Invested

$304.51

Value

$269.4

PnL

-$35.11

Record

52%

7299-6610 (13909)

primmCTR<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$44.97

Value

$15.81

PnL

-$29.16

Record

46%

1015-1203 (2218)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$14.82

Value

$13.75

PnL

-$1.07

Record

62%

4966-3093 (8059)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$26.73

Value

$10.13

PnL

-$16.61

Record

69%

34652-15570 (50222)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$5.87

Value

$4.49

PnL

-$1.37

Record

55%

3160-2554 (5714)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$0.58

Value

$0.66

PnL

+$0.08

Record

56%

10449-8249 (18698)

Research grade

NeutralChiefs at 70%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Chiefs

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Chiefs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.0%

70.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$38.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

138.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.