Spread: Seahawks (-13.5)

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Chiefs (50%) · Chiefs at 69¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 26

Seahawks31¢Chiefs69¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Chiefs

Consensus Traders

Chiefs 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

$919.6

Smart Money Entry

58.6¢ → 69¢

+18% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralChiefs at 69%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Chiefs

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Seahawks31%

Chiefs69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Chiefs3 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares5,542

Combined PnL+$931.51

Seahawks3 traders

Total Value$134.35

Total Shares410

Combined PnL-$11.91

Chiefs — 50%Seahawks — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Chiefsavg 46.8¢	$1.5K	$2.7K	+$1.2K	55% 12853-10588 (23441)
RN1	Chiefsavg 73.8¢	$2.2K	$1.9K	-$274.1	55% 47028-39201 (86229)
RE redvinny	Chiefsavg 83¢	$166	$169	+$3	75% 1361-449 (1810)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Chiefsavg 65¢	$79.05	$78.79	-$0.26	52% 7299-6610 (13909)
└ Chiefs leg	Chiefsavg 65¢	$59.15	$57.33	-$1.82
└ Seahawks leg	Seahawksavg 34.3¢	$19.9	$21.46	+$1.56
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Seahawksavg 29¢	$60.9	$54.6	-$6.3	55% 3160-2554 (5714)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Seahawksavg 35¢	$49.33	$45.95	-$3.38	56% 2221-1759 (3980)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Seahawksavg 18¢	$36.02	$33.8	-$2.23	69% 34652-15570 (50222)

HomeRunHazard

Chiefs

Invested

$1,496

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

55%

12853-10588 (23441)

RN1

Chiefs

Invested

$2,164.74

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$274.1

Record

55%

47028-39201 (86229)

redvinny

Chiefs

Invested

$166

Value

$169

PnL

+$3

Record

75%

1361-449 (1810)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$79.05

Value

$78.79

PnL

-$0.26

Record

52%

7299-6610 (13909)

Both legs:

Chiefs$59.1565¢-$1.82

Seahawks$19.934.3¢+$1.56

takeormakeCTR<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$60.9

Value

$54.6

PnL

-$6.3

Record

55%

3160-2554 (5714)

Anon455CTR<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$49.33

Value

$45.95

PnL

-$3.38

Record

56%

2221-1759 (3980)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$36.02

Value

$33.8

PnL

-$2.23

Record

69%

34652-15570 (50222)

Research grade

NeutralChiefs at 69%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Chiefs

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Chiefs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.0%

69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$40.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

140.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.