Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Chiefs, while the market favors Seahawks (59%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Seahawks (-10.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Chiefs (56%) · Chiefs at 41¢ · $38K held · ended Oct 26

Seahawks59¢Chiefs41¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Chiefs

Consensus Traders

Chiefs 56%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$38.3K

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Entry

53.8¢ → 41¢

-24% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralChiefs at 41%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Chiefs

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Seahawks 59%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Seahawks59%

Chiefs41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Chiefs5 traders

Total Value$13.6K

Total Shares24,538

Combined PnL+$361.13

Seahawks4 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares6,559

Combined PnL$-1.6K

Chiefs — 56%Seahawks — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Chiefsavg 58.3¢	$10.7K	$10.3K	-$359.84	55% 12853-10588 (23441)
└ Chiefs leg	Chiefsavg 58.3¢	$5.9K	$5.7K	-$229.49
└ Seahawks leg	Seahawksavg 45.2¢	$4.8K	$4.6K	-$130.36
RN1ARB<$100	Seahawksavg 47.7¢	$9.4K	$9.4K	+$58.03	55% 47028-39201 (86229)
└ Seahawks leg	Seahawksavg 47.7¢	$5.0K	$6.1K	+$1.1K
└ Chiefs leg	Chiefsavg 55¢	$4.4K	$3.3K	$-1.1K
PR primmCTR	Chiefsavg 49¢	$7.6K	$6.5K	$-1.2K	46% 1015-1203 (2218)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR	Chiefsavg 60¢	$4.2K	$5.6K	+$1.4K	46% 378-440 (818)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Seahawksavg 41.7¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$103.76	56% 2221-1759 (3980)
└ Chiefs leg	Chiefsavg 45¢	$904.6	$1.5K	+$632.06
└ Seahawks leg	Seahawksavg 41.7¢	$1.2K	$680.54	-$528.3
UP UpTheBlues	Seahawksavg 55¢	$2.5K	$928.57	$-1.6K	69% 34652-15570 (50222)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Seahawksavg 42.3¢	$886.56	$839.4	-$47.16	52% 7299-6610 (13909)
└ Seahawks leg	Seahawksavg 42.3¢	$601.64	$626.03	+$24.39
└ Chiefs leg	Chiefsavg 74.8¢	$284.92	$213.37	-$71.55
RE redvinnyCTR	Chiefsavg 79.6¢	$832.84	$831.57	-$1.27	75% 1361-449 (1810)
ME metski29	Seahawksavg 60¢	$850	$828.9	-$21.1	45% 254-316 (570)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR	Chiefsavg 60¢	$476.4	$631.23	+$154.83	49% 3350-3443 (6793)
FO Forecastication2	Seahawksavg 22¢	$133.54	$124.43	-$9.11	62% 4966-3093 (8059)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Chiefsavg 57.2¢	$16.06	$16.15	+$0.09	55% 3160-2554 (5714)
US User7429<$100	Seahawksavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.38	-$0.02	58% 6537-4795 (11332)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$10,680.5

Value

$10.3K

PnL

-$359.84

Record

55%

12853-10588 (23441)

Both legs:

Chiefs$5,917.1958.3¢-$229.49

Seahawks$4,763.3145.2¢-$130.36

RN1ARB<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$9,364.39

Value

$9.4K

PnL

+$58.03

Record

55%

47028-39201 (86229)

Both legs:

Seahawks$4,994.9847.7¢+$1.1K

Chiefs$4,369.455¢$-1.1K

primmCTR

Chiefs

Invested

$7,644.07

Value

$6.5K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

46%

1015-1203 (2218)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR

Chiefs

Invested

$4,245.05

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

46%

378-440 (818)

Anon455ARB<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$2,113.45

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$103.76

Record

56%

2221-1759 (3980)

Both legs:

Chiefs$904.645¢+$632.06

Seahawks$1,208.8541.7¢-$528.3

UpTheBlues

Seahawks

Invested

$2,489.74

Value

$928.57

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

69%

34652-15570 (50222)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$886.56

Value

$839.4

PnL

-$47.16

Record

52%

7299-6610 (13909)

Both legs:

Seahawks$601.6442.3¢+$24.39

Chiefs$284.9274.8¢-$71.55

redvinnyCTR

Chiefs

Invested

$832.84

Value

$831.57

PnL

-$1.27

Record

75%

1361-449 (1810)

metski29

Seahawks

Invested

$850

Value

$828.9

PnL

-$21.1

Record

45%

254-316 (570)

NatoAlfistaCTR

Chiefs

Invested

$476.4

Value

$631.23

PnL

+$154.83

Record

49%

3350-3443 (6793)

Forecastication2

Seahawks

Invested

$133.54

Value

$124.43

PnL

-$9.11

Record

62%

4966-3093 (8059)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$16.06

Value

$16.15

PnL

+$0.09

Record

55%

3160-2554 (5714)

User7429<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.38

PnL

-$0.02

Record

58%

6537-4795 (11332)

Research grade

NeutralChiefs at 41%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Chiefs

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Seahawks 59%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Chiefs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.2%

41.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$131.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

231.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.