Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Chiefs, while the market favors Seahawks (83%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Chiefs (-9.5)
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Chiefs (67%) · Chiefs at 17¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Chiefs
3
Chiefs 67%
$3.1K
$2.35
17¢ → 17¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidChiefs at 17%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Seahawks 83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA takeormakeCTR | Chiefsavg 17¢ | $18.3K | $3.1K | +$0.2 | 55% 3104-2515 (5619) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Seahawksavg 83¢ | $22.41 | $22.41 | -$0.14 | 55% 15069-12329 (27398) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Chiefsavg 5¢ | $0.95 | $3.23 | +$2.28 | 55% 46138-38317 (84455) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
17.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.