Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Chiefs, while the market favors Seahawks (75%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Chiefs (-6.5)

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Chiefs (50%) · Chiefs at 25¢ · $13K held · ends Oct 26

Chiefs25¢Seahawks75¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Chiefs

Consensus Traders

Chiefs 50%

Total Value

$12.6K

Combined PnL

$451.95

Smart Money Entry

24.1¢ → 25¢

+4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidChiefs at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Chiefs

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Seahawks 75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Chiefs25%

Seahawks75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Chiefs2 traders

Total Value$11.7K

Total Shares46,815

Combined PnL+$445.95

Seahawks2 traders

Total Value$927.75

Total Shares1,237

Combined PnL+$6

Chiefs — 50%Seahawks — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormakeCTR	Chiefsavg 24¢	$10.7K	$11.1K	+$445.95	55% 3052-2477 (5529)
unknowngambler	Seahawksavg 75¢	$899.25	$899.25	+$6	58% 332-239 (571)
NE neymar1CTR	Chiefsavg 25¢	$555.5	$555.5	+$0	33% 302-623 (925)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Seahawksavg 75¢	$28.5	$28.5	+$0	54% 14075-11776 (25851)

takeormakeCTR

Chiefs

Invested

$10,702.33

Value

$11.1K

PnL

+$445.95

Record

55%

3052-2477 (5529)

unknowngambler

Seahawks

Invested

$899.25

Value

$899.25

PnL

+$6

Record

58%

332-239 (571)

neymar1CTR

Chiefs

Invested

$555.5

Value

$555.5

PnL

+$0

Record

33%

302-623 (925)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$28.5

Value

$28.5

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

14075-11776 (25851)

Research grade

AvoidChiefs at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Chiefs

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Seahawks 75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Chiefs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance27.0%

25.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$270.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

370.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.