Spread: Chiefs (-2.5)
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Seahawks (100%) · Seahawks at 87¢ · $18K held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Seahawks
7
Seahawks 100%
1 arb excluded
$18.5K
$269.41
62.4¢ → 86.5¢
+39% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralSeahawks at 87%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nooserac | Seahawksavg 63¢ | $4.9K | $5.0K | +$39 | 52% 5349-4912 (10261) |
KA KaneAnalytics | Seahawksavg 65¢ | $4.1K | $4.0K | -$95.08 | 53% 326-286 (612) |
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE | Seahawksavg 61¢ | $3.3K | $3.4K | +$135.7 | 54% 1080-931 (2011) |
FO forecastication4 | Seahawksavg 60¢ | $3.3K | $3.4K | +$189.61 | 48% 970-1035 (2005) |
AN Anon455ARB<$100 | Seahawksavg 63.2¢ | $2.5K | $2.4K | -$41.12 | 56% 2130-1695 (3825) |
| └ Seahawks leg | Seahawksavg 63.2¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$7.76 | |
| └ Chiefs leg | Chiefsavg 38.8¢ | $813.23 | $764.35 | -$48.88 | |
BO BoomLaLa | Seahawksavg 61¢ | $152.5 | $158.75 | +$6.25 | 55% 9305-7626 (16931) |
JU justaluckydude<$100 | Seahawksavg 71.6¢ | $54.39 | $48.25 | -$6.14 | 52% 7071-6423 (13494) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Seahawksavg 62¢ | $3.1 | $3.18 | +$0.07 | 51% 4438-4219 (8657) |
NooseracInvested
$4,913.63
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$39
Record
52%
5349-4912 (10261)
Invested
$4,120.34
Value
$4.0K
PnL
-$95.08
Record
53%
326-286 (612)
Invested
$3,310.77
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$135.7
Record
54%
1080-931 (2011)
Invested
$3,250.44
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$189.61
Record
48%
970-1035 (2005)
Invested
$2,451.2
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$41.12
Record
56%
2130-1695 (3825)
Both legs:
Invested
$152.5
Value
$158.75
PnL
+$6.25
Record
55%
9305-7626 (16931)
Invested
$54.39
Value
$48.25
PnL
-$6.14
Record
52%
7071-6423 (13494)
Invested
$3.1
Value
$3.18
PnL
+$0.07
Record
51%
4438-4219 (8657)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.