Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Chiefs, while the market favors Seahawks (88%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Chiefs (-13.5)
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Chiefs (67%) · Chiefs at 12¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Chiefs
3
Chiefs 67%
$3.2K
$202.7
11.3¢ → 12¢
+6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidChiefs at 12%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Seahawks 88%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA takeormakeCTR | Chiefsavg 11.3¢ | $2.6K | $2.7K | +$152 | 55% 2998-2442 (5440) |
FO forecastication4CTR | Chiefsavg 11¢ | $371.81 | $422.51 | +$50.7 | 48% 919-980 (1899) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Seahawksavg 88¢ | $41.36 | $41.36 | +$0 | 54% 13750-11556 (25306) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
12.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.