Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Anytime Touchdown

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 98¢ · $12K held · ended Oct 26

Yes98¢No2¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 20%

Total Value

$12.4K

Combined PnL

$-5.8K

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$10.5K

Total Shares11,500

Combined PnL-$747.5

No4 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares13,520

Combined PnL$-5.1K

Yes — 20%No — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormake	Yesavg 98¢	$11.3K	$10.5K	-$747.5	55% 3160-2554 (5714)
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Noavg 53.3¢	$387.97	$810.28	+$422.31	54% 260-224 (484)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Noavg 54.2¢	$4.9K	$762.56	$-4.1K	50% 2030-2044 (4074)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 55.2¢	$1.7K	$256.87	$-1.4K	58% 34591-25199 (59790)
AJ AJSVCTR<$100	Noavg 54¢	$29.12	$29.66	+$0.54	36% 13446-23443 (36889)

takeormake

Yes

Invested

$11,270

Value

$10.5K

PnL

-$747.5

Record

55%

3160-2554 (5714)

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Invested

$387.97

Value

$810.28

PnL

+$422.31

Record

54%

260-224 (484)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Invested

$4,862.76

Value

$762.56

PnL

$-4.1K

Record

50%

2030-2044 (4074)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$1,666.97

Value

$256.87

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

58%

34591-25199 (59790)

AJSVCTR<$100

Invested

$29.12

Value

$29.66

PnL

+$0.54

Record

36%

13446-23443 (36889)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.