Colts vs. Vikings: O/U 44.5
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 57¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 100%
$1.4K
$26.7
55.2¢ → 57¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 57%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU SunlineTicker | Underavg 60¢ | $739.73 | $703.25 | -$36.48 | 68% 3522-1694 (5216) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 46¢ | $367.77 | $455.72 | +$87.95 | 55% 12164-10045 (22209) |
AN Anon455 | Underavg 58¢ | $204.74 | $201.21 | -$22.95 | 56% 2044-1603 (3647) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 58.4¢ | $74.21 | $72.39 | -$1.82 | 54% 13884-11640 (25524) |
Invested
$739.73
Value
$703.25
PnL
-$36.48
Record
68%
3522-1694 (5216)
Invested
$367.77
Value
$455.72
PnL
+$87.95
Record
55%
12164-10045 (22209)
Invested
$204.74
Value
$201.21
PnL
-$22.95
Record
56%
2044-1603 (3647)
Invested
$74.21
Value
$72.39
PnL
-$1.82
Record
54%
13884-11640 (25524)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.