Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (54%). 3 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Colts vs. Vikings: O/U 42.5

3 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (25%) · Over at 46¢ · $15K held · ended Oct 25

Over46¢Under54¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 25%

Total Value

$14.5K

Combined PnL

$7.44

Smart Money Entry

48.7¢ → 46¢

-6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 46%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 12 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over46%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$9.1K

Total Shares18,586

Combined PnL+$28.46

Under9 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares10,619

Combined PnL-$21.02

Over — 25%Under — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR	Overavg 49¢	$6.2K	$6.2K	-$0	54% 872-740 (1612)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Overavg 48.3¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$33.46	68% 31211-14997 (46208)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 51¢	$2.6K	$1.9K	-$27.38	58% 31731-22975 (54706)
AN Anon455	Underavg 51.1¢	$917.38	$915.06	-$2.31	56% 2033-1584 (3617)
HI hi774c	Underavg 50¢	$817.57	$833.92	+$16.35	55% 4238-3435 (7673)
MO mooseborzoii	Underavg 50¢	$601.2	$613.22	+$12.02	50% 1014-1005 (2019)
0xheavy888	Underavg 51.2¢	$576.54	$573.74	-$2.8	56% 6365-5100 (11465)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Overavg 47¢	$469.53	$489.51	-$4.99	68% 3519-1690 (5209)
0X 0xfd8ff771a52c22a8a29a3156572d9b3e47fd761d	Underavg 53¢	$490.73	$472.21	-$18.52	53% 125-110 (235)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Underavg 50.6¢	$104.24	$105.06	+$0.82	54% 13824-11602 (25426)
0X 0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be<$100	Underavg 50¢	$26.82	$27.09	+$0.27	49% 305-317 (622)
PR primm<$100	Underavg 50¢	$26	$26.52	+$0.52	46% 987-1174 (2161)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR

Over

Invested

$6,181.54

Value

$6.2K

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

872-740 (1612)

UpTheBluesCTR

Over

Invested

$2,402.55

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$33.46

Record

68%

31211-14997 (46208)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$2,617.45

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$27.38

Record

58%

31731-22975 (54706)

Anon455

Under

Invested

$917.38

Value

$915.06

PnL

-$2.31

Record

56%

2033-1584 (3617)

hi774c

Under

Invested

$817.57

Value

$833.92

PnL

+$16.35

Record

55%

4238-3435 (7673)

mooseborzoii

Under

Invested

$601.2

Value

$613.22

PnL

+$12.02

Record

50%

1014-1005 (2019)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$576.54

Value

$573.74

PnL

-$2.8

Record

56%

6365-5100 (11465)

SunlineTickerCTR

Over

Invested

$469.53

Value

$489.51

PnL

-$4.99

Record

68%

3519-1690 (5209)

0xfd8ff771a52c22a8a29a3156572d9b3e47fd761d

Under

Invested

$490.73

Value

$472.21

PnL

-$18.52

Record

53%

125-110 (235)

LeLynxMalynx

Under

Invested

$104.24

Value

$105.06

PnL

+$0.82

Record

54%

13824-11602 (25426)

0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be<$100

Under

Invested

$26.82

Value

$27.09

PnL

+$0.27

Record

49%

305-317 (622)

primm<$100

Under

Invested

$26

Value

$26.52

PnL

+$0.52

Record

46%

987-1174 (2161)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 46%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 12 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.2%

46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$107.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

207.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.