Colts vs. Vikings: O/U 40.5

6 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 54¢ · $53K held · ended Oct 25

Over54¢Under46¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$52.6K

Combined PnL

$7.45

Smart Money Entry

55¢ → 53.5¢

-3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 54%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 15 top traders (40%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over54%

Under47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$32.5K

Total Shares57,976

Combined PnL+$270.88

Under9 traders

Total Value$20.2K

Total Shares45,845

Combined PnL-$263.43

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Under) and the top 1000 (6 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KC Kch-Temp	Overavg 55¢	$30.6K	$31.2K	+$278.88	51% 191-182 (373)
SB sbimbgCTR	Underavg 45¢	$13.5K	$13.2K	-$300	64% 2186-1209 (3395)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 43.7¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$12.31	55% 12144-10023 (22167)
0xheavy888CTR	Underavg 43.8¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$6.32	56% 6365-5100 (11465)
PL pltrkr111CTR	Underavg 43¢	$1,000	$1.0K	+$23.26	55% 674-557 (1231)
AN Anon455CTR	Underavg 44¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$0	56% 2033-1584 (3617)
PR primmCTR	Underavg 44¢	$838.35	$838.35	+$0	46% 987-1174 (2161)
UP UpTheBlues	Overavg 56¢	$668.64	$668.64	-$0	68% 31211-14997 (46208)
ComingBackCTR	Underavg 47¢	$500	$468.09	-$5.32	62% 3694-2244 (5938)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR	Underavg 44¢	$435.07	$435.07	+$0	53% 1872-1637 (3509)
MA manoamano	Overavg 56¢	$345.63	$345.63	-$0	69% 394-173 (567)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks	Overavg 58¢	$232	$224	-$8	75% 2665-901 (3566)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$31.68	$31.68	+$0	54% 13824-11602 (25426)
GG GGLPL<$100	Overavg 56¢	$20.76	$20.76	-$0	50% 617-615 (1232)
SA Saber-greed<$100	Overavg 56¢	$10.7	$10.7	-$0	59% 2269-1578 (3847)

Kch-Temp

Over

Invested

$30,639.32

Value

$31.2K

PnL

+$278.88

Record

51%

191-182 (373)

sbimbgCTR

Under

Invested

$13,500

Value

$13.2K

PnL

-$300

Record

64%

2186-1209 (3395)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$1,676.84

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$12.31

Record

55%

12144-10023 (22167)

0xheavy888CTR

Under

Invested

$1,478.67

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$6.32

Record

56%

6365-5100 (11465)

pltrkr111CTR

Under

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$23.26

Record

55%

674-557 (1231)

Anon455CTR

Under

Invested

$1,001

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2033-1584 (3617)

primmCTR

Under

Invested

$838.35

Value

$838.35

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

987-1174 (2161)

UpTheBlues

Over

Invested

$668.64

Value

$668.64

PnL

-$0

Record

68%

31211-14997 (46208)

ComingBackCTR

Under

Invested

$500

Value

$468.09

PnL

-$5.32

Record

62%

3694-2244 (5938)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR

Under

Invested

$435.07

Value

$435.07

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1872-1637 (3509)

manoamano

Over

Invested

$345.63

Value

$345.63

PnL

-$0

Record

69%

394-173 (567)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks

Over

Invested

$232

Value

$224

PnL

-$8

Record

75%

2665-901 (3566)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$31.68

Value

$31.68

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

13824-11602 (25426)

GGLPL<$100

Over

Invested

$20.76

Value

$20.76

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

617-615 (1232)

Saber-greed<$100

Over

Invested

$10.7

Value

$10.7

PnL

-$0

Record

59%

2269-1578 (3847)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 54%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 15 top traders (40%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Under) and the top 1000 (6 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.