Spread: Vikings (-9.5)
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Colts (67%) · Colts at 59¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Colts
3
Colts 67%
$1.3K
-$20.94
60¢ → 59¢
-2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralColts at 59%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 StudyPrediction | Coltsavg 60¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$20 | 51% 3587-3459 (7046) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Vikingsavg 40¢ | $76.8 | $76.8 | -$0.96 | 61% 4514-2866 (7380) |
EL Electricy<$100 | Coltsavg 59¢ | $2.88 | $2.88 | +$0.02 | 62% 355-218 (573) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.