Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Vikings, while the market favors Colts (78%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Vikings (-8.5)
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Vikings (57%) · Vikings at 23¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Vikings
7
Vikings 57%
$8.1K
$-3.1K
43¢ → 22.5¢
-48% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidVikings at 23%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Colts 78%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Vikings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Vikingsavg 43¢ | $14.9K | $3.3K | $-3.1K | 55% 12164-10045 (22209) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Vikingsavg 43¢ | $3.2K | $3.2K | -$75 | 58% 31904-23124 (55028) |
 StudyPrediction | Coltsavg 57¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$0 | 51% 3613-3472 (7085) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Vikingsavg 43¢ | $337.12 | $329.28 | -$7.84 | 56% 6385-5115 (11500) |
SU SunlineTicker | Coltsavg 56¢ | $168.66 | $171.61 | +$2.95 | 68% 3522-1694 (5216) |
 RN1<$100 | Coltsavg 69¢ | $3.14 | $3.07 | -$0.07 | 55% 43817-36057 (79874) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Vikingsavg 43¢ | $2.15 | $2.1 | -$0.05 | 51% 4110-3965 (8075) |
Invested
$14,882.57
Value
$3.3K
PnL
$-3.1K
Record
55%
12164-10045 (22209)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$3,225
Value
$3.2K
PnL
-$75
Record
58%
31904-23124 (55028)
StudyPredictionInvested
$1,140
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$0
Record
51%
3613-3472 (7085)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$337.12
Value
$329.28
PnL
-$7.84
Record
56%
6385-5115 (11500)
Invested
$168.66
Value
$171.61
PnL
+$2.95
Record
68%
3522-1694 (5216)
RN1<$100Invested
$3.14
Value
$3.07
PnL
-$0.07
Record
55%
43817-36057 (79874)
Invested
$2.15
Value
$2.1
PnL
-$0.05
Record
51%
4110-3965 (8075)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
22.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.