Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Vikings, while the market favors Colts (55%). 2 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Vikings (-7.5)
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Vikings (29%) · Vikings at 46¢ · $12K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Vikings
7
Vikings 29%
$12.3K
-$47.29
44.9¢ → 45.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralVikings at 46%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Colts 55%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on Vikings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA taylorsversionCTR | Vikingsavg 44.9¢ | $6.5K | $6.5K | +$10.48 | 53% 102-90 (192) |
 VeryLucky888 | Coltsavg 55¢ | $5.5K | $5.5K | -$49.92 | 58% 31395-22700 (54095) |
BO BoomLaLa | Coltsavg 55¢ | $137.5 | $135 | -$2.5 | 55% 8849-7313 (16162) |
LI lightotunnel35 | Coltsavg 58¢ | $103.57 | $97.32 | -$6.25 | 55% 33-27 (60) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Vikingsavg 44¢ | $80.08 | $81.9 | +$2.73 | 61% 4366-2803 (7169) |
DA darkumbreon88<$100 | Coltsavg 56¢ | $39.82 | $38.39 | -$1.42 | 65% 1523-816 (2339) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Coltsavg 55¢ | $22 | $21.6 | -$0.4 | 54% 13697-11517 (25214) |
Invested
$6,481.47
Value
$6.5K
PnL
+$10.48
Record
53%
102-90 (192)
VeryLucky888Invested
$5,508.15
Value
$5.5K
PnL
-$49.92
Record
58%
31395-22700 (54095)
Invested
$137.5
Value
$135
PnL
-$2.5
Record
55%
8849-7313 (16162)
Invested
$103.57
Value
$97.32
PnL
-$6.25
Record
55%
33-27 (60)
Invested
$80.08
Value
$81.9
PnL
+$2.73
Record
61%
4366-2803 (7169)
Invested
$39.82
Value
$38.39
PnL
-$1.42
Record
65%
1523-816 (2339)
Invested
$22
Value
$21.6
PnL
-$0.4
Record
54%
13697-11517 (25214)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.