Spread: Vikings (-5.5)

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Colts (80%) · Colts at 67¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25

Vikings33¢Colts67¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Colts

Consensus Traders

Colts 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$251.82

Smart Money Entry

44.1¢ → 67¢

+52% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralColts at 67%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Colts

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Vikings33%

Colts67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Colts4 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares3,223

Combined PnL+$251.37

Vikings1 trader

Total Value$31.11

Total Shares92

Combined PnL+$0.46

Colts — 80%Vikings — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Vikingsavg 35¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$129.47	55% 12164-10045 (22209)
└ Vikings leg	Vikingsavg 35¢	$960.18	$1.1K	+$121.97
└ Colts leg	Coltsavg 59¢	$295	$302.5	+$7.5
StudyPrediction	Coltsavg 44¢	$880	$980	-$10	51% 3613-3472 (7085)
SU SunlineTicker	Coltsavg 43¢	$439.89	$675.18	+$235.29	68% 3522-1694 (5216)
RN1<$100	Coltsavg 49¢	$69.1	$93.08	+$23.98	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Coltsavg 53.9¢	$48.6	$50.7	+$2.1	52% 6814-6216 (13030)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Vikingsavg 56¢	$30.65	$31.11	+$0.46	66% 2856-1504 (4360)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Vikings

Invested

$1,255.18

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$129.47

Record

55%

12164-10045 (22209)

Both legs:

Vikings$960.1835¢+$121.97

Colts$29559¢+$7.5

StudyPrediction

Colts

Invested

$880

Value

$980

PnL

-$10

Record

51%

3613-3472 (7085)

SunlineTicker

Colts

Invested

$439.89

Value

$675.18

PnL

+$235.29

Record

68%

3522-1694 (5216)

RN1<$100

Colts

Invested

$69.1

Value

$93.08

PnL

+$23.98

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

justaluckydude<$100

Colts

Invested

$48.6

Value

$50.7

PnL

+$2.1

Record

52%

6814-6216 (13030)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Vikings

Invested

$30.65

Value

$31.11

PnL

+$0.46

Record

66%

2856-1504 (4360)

Research grade

NeutralColts at 67%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Colts

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Colts wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.1%

67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$44.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

144.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.