Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Vikings, while the market favors Colts (65%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Vikings (-4.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Vikings (60%) · Vikings at 36¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Vikings
5
Vikings 60%
1 arb excluded
$3.8K
$329.99
50.8¢ → 35.5¢
-30% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralVikings at 36%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Colts 65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Vikings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 unknowngamblerCTR | Vikingsavg 60¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$0 | 58% 327-233 (560) |
 RN1CTR | Vikingsavg 36¢ | $511.74 | $852.9 | +$341.16 | 55% 43817-36057 (79874) |
 StudyPrediction | Coltsavg 42¢ | $840 | $800 | -$10 | 51% 3613-3472 (7085) |
SU SunlineTickerARB<$100 | Vikingsavg 59¢ | $708.61 | $718.15 | +$9.54 | 68% 3522-1694 (5216) |
| └ Vikings leg | Vikingsavg 59¢ | $563.01 | $572.55 | +$9.54 | |
| └ Colts leg | Coltsavg 40¢ | $145.6 | $145.6 | +$0 | |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Coltsavg 40¢ | $28.4 | $28.4 | -$0 | 54% 13884-11640 (25524) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100 | Vikingsavg 46¢ | $17.94 | $16.77 | -$1.17 | 52% 6814-6216 (13030) |
unknowngamblerCTRInvested
$1,392.6
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
327-233 (560)
RN1CTRInvested
$511.74
Value
$852.9
PnL
+$341.16
Record
55%
43817-36057 (79874)
StudyPredictionInvested
$840
Value
$800
PnL
-$10
Record
51%
3613-3472 (7085)
Invested
$708.61
Value
$718.15
PnL
+$9.54
Record
68%
3522-1694 (5216)
Both legs:
Invested
$28.4
Value
$28.4
PnL
-$0
Record
54%
13884-11640 (25524)
Invested
$17.94
Value
$16.77
PnL
-$1.17
Record
52%
6814-6216 (13030)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.