Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Vikings, while the market favors Colts (59%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Vikings (-3.5)

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Vikings (75%) · Vikings at 42¢ · $23K held · ended Oct 25

Vikings42¢Colts58¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Vikings

Consensus Traders

Vikings 75%

Total Value

$23.2K

Combined PnL

$-4.7K

Smart Money Entry

50¢ → 41.5¢

-17% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralVikings at 42%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Vikings

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Colts 59%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Vikings42%

Colts59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Vikings6 traders

Total Value$20.8K

Total Shares51,060

Combined PnL$-4.7K

Colts2 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares4,611

Combined PnL+$9.17

Vikings — 75%Colts — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Vikings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleVikings 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpVikings 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrVikings 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedVikings 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Vikings 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR	Vikingsavg 39¢	$10.3K	$9.9K	-$393.51	46% 368-430 (798)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Vikingsavg 61.4¢	$9.8K	$7.6K	$-2.2K	55% 12164-10045 (22209)
VeryLucky888CTR	Vikingsavg 62¢	$4.5K	$2.7K	$-1.8K	58% 31904-23124 (55028)
RN1	Coltsavg 61¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$39.17	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
StudyPrediction	Coltsavg 39¢	$780	$780	-$30	51% 3613-3472 (7085)
AN Anon455CTR	Vikingsavg 62¢	$620	$375	-$235	56% 2044-1603 (3647)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Vikingsavg 62¢	$212.66	$128.62	-$84.04	68% 3522-1694 (5216)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Vikingsavg 62¢	$32.24	$19.5	-$12.74	54% 13884-11640 (25524)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR

Vikings

Invested

$10,256.38

Value

$9.9K

PnL

-$393.51

Record

46%

368-430 (798)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Vikings

Invested

$9,839.06

Value

$7.6K

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

55%

12164-10045 (22209)

VeryLucky888CTR

Vikings

Invested

$4,543.16

Value

$2.7K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

58%

31904-23124 (55028)

RN1

Colts

Invested

$1,592.71

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$39.17

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

StudyPrediction

Colts

Invested

$780

Value

$780

PnL

-$30

Record

51%

3613-3472 (7085)

Anon455CTR

Vikings

Invested

$620

Value

$375

PnL

-$235

Record

56%

2044-1603 (3647)

SunlineTickerCTR

Vikings

Invested

$212.66

Value

$128.62

PnL

-$84.04

Record

68%

3522-1694 (5216)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Vikings

Invested

$32.24

Value

$19.5

PnL

-$12.74

Record

54%

13884-11640 (25524)

Research grade

NeutralVikings at 42%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Vikings

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Colts 59%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Vikings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleVikings 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpVikings 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrVikings 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedVikings 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Vikings 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Vikings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.