Spread: Vikings (-2.5)
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Vikings (100%) · Vikings at 53¢ · $22K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Vikings
3
Vikings 100%
2 arb excluded
$22.3K
-$258.93
50¢ → 53¢
+6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralVikings at 53%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186 | Vikingsavg 50¢ | $13.1K | $12.9K | -$274.45 | 46% 368-430 (798) |
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Vikingsavg 49.2¢ | $5.0K | $5.3K | +$220.71 | 55% 12164-10045 (22209) |
| └ Vikings leg | Vikingsavg 49.2¢ | $2.7K | $3.2K | +$514.8 | |
| └ Colts leg | Coltsavg 47.6¢ | $2.3K | $2.0K | -$294.09 | |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Coltsavg 49.5¢ | $3.9K | $3.6K | -$236.64 | 55% 43817-36057 (79874) |
| └ Colts leg | Coltsavg 49.5¢ | $2.4K | $2.5K | +$72.37 | |
| └ Vikings leg | Vikingsavg 62¢ | $1.5K | $1.2K | -$309.01 | |
AN Anon455 | Vikingsavg 49¢ | $496.47 | $511.99 | +$15.52 | 56% 2044-1603 (3647) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Vikingsavg 49¢ | $2.45 | $2.45 | +$0 | 51% 4110-3965 (8075) |
Invested
$13,129.16
Value
$12.9K
PnL
-$274.45
Record
46%
368-430 (798)
Invested
$5,033.44
Value
$5.3K
PnL
+$220.71
Record
55%
12164-10045 (22209)
Both legs:
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$3,879.97
Value
$3.6K
PnL
-$236.64
Record
55%
43817-36057 (79874)
Both legs:
Invested
$496.47
Value
$511.99
PnL
+$15.52
Record
56%
2044-1603 (3647)
Invested
$2.45
Value
$2.45
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
4110-3965 (8075)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.