Spread: Vikings (-17.5)

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Colts (50%) · Colts at 83¢ · $9K held · ends Oct 25

Vikings17¢Colts83¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Colts

Consensus Traders

Colts 50%

Total Value

$9.0K

Combined PnL

-$62.01

Smart Money Entry

83.9¢ → 83¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralColts at 83%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Colts

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Vikings17%

Colts83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Colts2 traders

Total Value$8.8K

Total Shares10,575

Combined PnL-$79.58

Vikings2 traders

Total Value$242.51

Total Shares1,445

Combined PnL+$17.57

Colts — 50%Vikings — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Coltsavg 83.9¢	$8.0K	$7.9K	-$84.58	58% 31395-22700 (54095)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Coltsavg 84¢	$840	$830	+$5	69% 4216-1907 (6123)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Vikingsavg 16¢	$131.34	$139.55	+$8.21	61% 4366-2803 (7169)
FO forecastication4CTR	Vikingsavg 15¢	$93.6	$102.96	+$9.36	48% 912-976 (1888)

VeryLucky888

Colts

Invested

$8,031.81

Value

$7.9K

PnL

-$84.58

Record

58%

31395-22700 (54095)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Colts

Invested

$840

Value

$830

PnL

+$5

Record

69%

4216-1907 (6123)

Forecastication2CTR

Vikings

Invested

$131.34

Value

$139.55

PnL

+$8.21

Record

61%

4366-2803 (7169)

forecastication4CTR

Vikings

Invested

$93.6

Value

$102.96

PnL

+$9.36

Record

48%

912-976 (1888)

Research grade

NeutralColts at 83%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Colts

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Colts wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.7%

83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.