Colts vs. Vikings
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Vikings (25%) · Vikings at 74¢ · $22K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Vikings
4
Vikings 25%
1 arb excluded
$21.8K
-$50
Research grade
NeutralVikings at 74%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on Vikings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CH chubbytoro | Vikingsavg 73¢ | $19.9K | $19.9K | +$0 | 49% 68-70 (138) |
 StudyPredictionCTR | Coltsavg 27.5¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$20 | 51% 3538-3434 (6972) |
LI lissartterCTR | Coltsavg 28¢ | $560 | $530 | -$30 | 44% 4851-6181 (11032) |
DA darkumbreon88ARB<$100 | Coltsavg 28¢ | $186.35 | $183.99 | -$3.83 | 65% 1520-814 (2334) |
| └ Colts leg | Coltsavg 28¢ | $116.84 | $112.53 | -$4.31 | |
| └ Vikings leg | Vikingsavg 71¢ | $69.51 | $71.47 | +$0.49 | |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Coltsavg 27¢ | $24.3 | $24.3 | +$0 | 54% 13658-11474 (25132) |
Invested
$19,943.24
Value
$19.9K
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
68-70 (138)
StudyPredictionCTRInvested
$1,099.99
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$20
Record
51%
3538-3434 (6972)
Invested
$560
Value
$530
PnL
-$30
Record
44%
4851-6181 (11032)
Invested
$186.35
Value
$183.99
PnL
-$3.83
Record
65%
1520-814 (2334)
Both legs:
Invested
$24.3
Value
$24.3
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
13658-11474 (25132)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.