Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (98%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Packers vs. Lions: O/U 58.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 1.9¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Over
4
Over 75%
1 arb excluded
$5.8K
-$992.81
51.3¢ → 1.9¢
-96% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 2%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Under 98%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR | Overavg 49.8¢ | $3.0K | $2.5K | -$507.97 | 55% 44397-36651 (81048) |
SU SunlineTickerARB<$100 | Underavg 60¢ | $1.9K | $2.1K | -$80.36 | 67% 3569-1722 (5291) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 40¢ | $843.6 | $1.1K | +$10.55 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 60¢ | $1.1K | $999.9 | -$90.9 | |
 StudyPrediction | Underavg 60¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$10 | 51% 3677-3531 (7208) |
NA NatoAlfistaCTR | Overavg 57¢ | $605.34 | $95.58 | -$472.59 | 49% 3180-3341 (6521) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Overavg 54¢ | $2.7 | $0.45 | -$2.25 | 51% 4228-4041 (8269) |
RN1CTRInvested
$3,004.16
Value
$2.5K
PnL
-$507.97
Record
55%
44397-36651 (81048)
Invested
$1,934.4
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$80.36
Record
67%
3569-1722 (5291)
Both legs:
StudyPredictionInvested
$1,200
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$10
Record
51%
3677-3531 (7208)
Invested
$605.34
Value
$95.58
PnL
-$472.59
Record
49%
3180-3341 (6521)
Invested
$2.7
Value
$0.45
PnL
-$2.25
Record
51%
4228-4041 (8269)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.