Packers vs. Lions: O/U 56.5

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 53¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 25

Over47¢Under53¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

-$77.23

Smart Money Entry

54¢ → 53¢

-2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 53%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares7,186

Combined PnL-$71.91

Over1 trader

Total Value$500

Total Shares1,064

Combined PnL-$5.32

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI lightotunnel35	Underavg 54¢	$3.8K	$3.7K	-$70	57% 37-28 (65)
ComingBackCTR	Overavg 47¢	$500	$500	-$5.32	62% 3695-2244 (5939)
0xheavy888<$100	Underavg 53¢	$59.36	$59.36	+$0	56% 6385-5115 (11500)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Underavg 56.6¢	$41.72	$39.07	-$1.91	65% 1543-826 (2369)

lightotunnel35

Under

Invested

$3,780

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$70

Record

57%

37-28 (65)

ComingBackCTR

Over

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

-$5.32

Record

62%

3695-2244 (5939)

0xheavy888<$100

Under

Invested

$59.36

Value

$59.36

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

6385-5115 (11500)

darkumbreon88<$100

Under

Invested

$41.72

Value

$39.07

PnL

-$1.91

Record

65%

1543-826 (2369)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 53%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.2%

53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$81.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

181.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.