Packers vs. Lions: O/U 54.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 55¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 60%
$5.4K
$109.69
52.4¢ → 54.5¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 55%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 heyboy800 | Overavg 54¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | -$54 | 61% 786-502 (1288) |
MO mooseborzoii | Overavg 50¢ | $1.8K | $1.9K | +$158.68 | 50% 1017-1009 (2026) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 49.2¢ | $399.57 | $403.96 | +$4.39 | 58% 31904-23124 (55028) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 46.6¢ | $69.41 | $70.03 | +$0.62 | 54% 13884-11640 (25524) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $1.13 | $1.13 | +$0 | 75% 2670-903 (3573) |
heyboy800Invested
$3,022.14
Value
$3.0K
PnL
-$54
Record
61%
786-502 (1288)
Invested
$1,763.02
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$158.68
Record
50%
1017-1009 (2026)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$399.57
Value
$403.96
PnL
+$4.39
Record
58%
31904-23124 (55028)
Invested
$69.41
Value
$70.03
PnL
+$0.62
Record
54%
13884-11640 (25524)
Invested
$1.13
Value
$1.13
PnL
+$0
Record
75%
2670-903 (3573)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.