Packers vs. Lions: O/U 52.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 97¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 25

Over3¢Under97¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.8K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

49.3¢ → 97.3¢

+97% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over3%

Under97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$6.8K

Total Shares10,935

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Over3 traders

Total Value$538.91

Total Shares2,055

Combined PnL+$48.2

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Underavg 46.4¢	$2.9K	$3.9K	+$632.29	46% 1001-1188 (2189)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 41.8¢	$5.2K	$2.5K	$-2.7K	55% 44397-36651 (81048)
└ Over leg	Overavg 41.8¢	$4.4K	$1.3K	$-3.1K
└ Under leg	Underavg 56.1¢	$762.83	$1.2K	+$427.8
JU justaluckydude	Underavg 60.6¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$34.55	52% 6989-6369 (13358)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 43¢	$860	$1.2K	+$377.9	51% 1037-994 (2031)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Overavg 59¢	$386.02	$381.05	-$4.98	57% 4546-3373 (7919)
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 7¢	$71.2	$127.15	+$55.94	56% 2094-1661 (3755)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 58¢	$34.92	$30.72	-$2.77	54% 14164-11846 (26010)

primm

Under

Invested

$2,900.61

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$632.29

Record

46%

1001-1188 (2189)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$5,199.55

Value

$2.5K

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

55%

44397-36651 (81048)

Both legs:

Over$4,436.7241.8¢$-3.1K

Under$762.8356.1¢+$427.8

justaluckydude

Under

Invested

$1,625.59

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$34.55

Record

52%

6989-6369 (13358)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$860

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$377.9

Record

51%

1037-994 (2031)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Over

Invested

$386.02

Value

$381.05

PnL

-$4.98

Record

57%

4546-3373 (7919)

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$71.2

Value

$127.15

PnL

+$55.94

Record

56%

2094-1661 (3755)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$34.92

Value

$30.72

PnL

-$2.77

Record

54%

14164-11846 (26010)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.3%

97.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.