Spread: Lions (-9.5)
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Packers (100%) · Packers at 78¢ · $18K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Packers
3
Packers 100%
1 arb excluded
$17.8K
$1.4K
66.1¢ → 78¢
+18% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralPackers at 78%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA takeormake | Packersavg 64.1¢ | $11.1K | $13.5K | +$1.3K | 55% 3072-2497 (5569) |
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE | Packersavg 78¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | +$0 | 54% 1067-923 (1990) |
 unknowngambler | Packersavg 67¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$119.23 | 58% 333-239 (572) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Lionsavg 22¢ | $882.13 | $960.65 | +$78.52 | 55% 44397-36651 (81048) |
| └ Lions leg | Lionsavg 22¢ | $531.08 | $531.08 | +$0 | |
| └ Packers leg | Packersavg 63.7¢ | $351.05 | $429.57 | +$78.52 |
Invested
$11,084.61
Value
$13.5K
PnL
+$1.3K
Record
55%
3072-2497 (5569)
Invested
$2,162.52
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
1067-923 (1990)
unknowngamblerInvested
$1,065.08
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$119.23
Record
58%
333-239 (572)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$882.13
Value
$960.65
PnL
+$78.52
Record
55%
44397-36651 (81048)
Both legs:
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.