Spread: Lions (-7.5)

1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Packers (33%) · Packers at 64¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 25

Lions36¢Packers64¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Packers

Consensus Traders

Packers 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

$11.02

Research grade

NeutralPackers at 64%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Packers

1 of 3 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Lions36%

Packers64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Packers1 trader

Total Value$640

Total Shares1,000

Combined PnL+$65

Lions2 traders

Total Value$243.11

Total Shares675

Combined PnL-$53.98

Packers — 33%Lions — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Lionsavg 37.9¢	$3.2K	$3.1K	-$123.16	55% 44397-36651 (81048)
└ Lions leg	Lionsavg 37.9¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$83.97
└ Packers leg	Packersavg 65.7¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$39.19
SA SadSquid54333	Packersavg 62¢	$620	$640	+$65	63% 130-76 (206)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR	Lionsavg 44¢	$223.3	$182.7	-$45.68	49% 3180-3341 (6521)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Lionsavg 41¢	$68.72	$60.41	-$8.31	55% 3072-2497 (5569)

RN1ARB<$100

Lions

Invested

$3,223.72

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$123.16

Record

55%

44397-36651 (81048)

Both legs:

Lions$1,693.4137.9¢-$83.97

Packers$1,530.3165.7¢-$39.19

SadSquid54333

Packers

Invested

$620

Value

$640

PnL

+$65

Record

63%

130-76 (206)

NatoAlfistaCTR

Lions

Invested

$223.3

Value

$182.7

PnL

-$45.68

Record

49%

3180-3341 (6521)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Lions

Invested

$68.72

Value

$60.41

PnL

-$8.31

Record

55%

3072-2497 (5569)

Research grade

NeutralPackers at 64%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Packers

1 of 3 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Packers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.1%

64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$51.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

151.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.