Spread: Lions (-5.5)

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Packers (38%) · Packers at 71¢ · $22K held · ended Oct 25

Lions30¢Packers70¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Packers

Consensus Traders

Packers 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.5K

Combined PnL

$-2.4K

Smart Money Entry

53¢ → 70.5¢

+33% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralPackers at 71%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Packers

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Lions30%

Packers71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Packers3 traders

Total Value$8.7K

Total Shares15,829

Combined PnL+$93.18

Lions5 traders

Total Value$6.9K

Total Shares15,537

Combined PnL$-2.5K

Packers — 38%Lions — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Packers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePackers 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrLions 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Lions 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormake	Packersavg 50.5¢	$6.0K	$6.3K	+$108.62	55% 3072-2497 (5569)
RN1ARB<$100	Packersavg 53.2¢	$5.6K	$5.8K	+$253.56	55% 44397-36651 (81048)
└ Packers leg	Packersavg 53.2¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$10.47
└ Lions leg	Lionsavg 42.7¢	$2.6K	$2.9K	+$264.03
GaoJin-GamblingGodCTR	Lionsavg 49¢	$5.4K	$5.2K	$-2.5K	51% 518-506 (1024)
AN Anon455	Packersavg 66.3¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$4.56	56% 2094-1661 (3755)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Lionsavg 47¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$1.32	68% 31996-15360 (47356)
StudyPrediction	Packersavg 54¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$20	51% 3677-3531 (7208)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Lionsavg 21.6¢	$236.62	$180.34	-$56.28	52% 6989-6369 (13358)
0X 0xfC0847fe2Ea938D6e2624650eB29eF8d8142A137-1771999665274CTR	Lionsavg 39.9¢	$148.68	$151.5	+$22.8	55% 396-321 (717)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Lionsavg 45¢	$75.69	$83.37	+$7.68	49% 3180-3341 (6521)

takeormake

Packers

Invested

$6,011.63

Value

$6.3K

PnL

+$108.62

Record

55%

3072-2497 (5569)

RN1ARB<$100

Packers

Invested

$5,568.18

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$253.56

Record

55%

44397-36651 (81048)

Both legs:

Packers$2,976.4953.2¢-$10.47

Lions$2,591.6942.7¢+$264.03

GaoJin-GamblingGodCTR

Lions

Invested

$5,393.35

Value

$5.2K

PnL

$-2.5K

Record

51%

518-506 (1024)

Anon455

Packers

Invested

$1,372.66

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$4.56

Record

56%

2094-1661 (3755)

UpTheBluesCTR

Lions

Invested

$1,359.56

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$1.32

Record

68%

31996-15360 (47356)

StudyPrediction

Packers

Invested

$1,079.99

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$20

Record

51%

3677-3531 (7208)

justaluckydudeCTR

Lions

Invested

$236.62

Value

$180.34

PnL

-$56.28

Record

52%

6989-6369 (13358)

0xfC0847fe2Ea938D6e2624650eB29eF8d8142A137-1771999665274CTR

Lions

Invested

$148.68

Value

$151.5

PnL

+$22.8

Record

55%

396-321 (717)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Lions

Invested

$75.69

Value

$83.37

PnL

+$7.68

Record

49%

3180-3341 (6521)

Research grade

NeutralPackers at 71%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Packers

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Packers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePackers 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrLions 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Lions 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Packers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.