Spread: Lions (-4.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Lions (67%) · Lions at 56¢ · $65K held · ended Oct 25

Lions56¢Packers44¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lions

Consensus Traders

Lions 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$65.5K

Combined PnL

$-5.4K

Smart Money Entry

48.6¢ → 56.5¢

+16% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralLions at 56%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lions

6 of 9 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Lions56%

Packers44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Packers3 traders

Total Value$22.7K

Total Shares50,321

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Lions6 traders

Total Value$36.1K

Total Shares73,615

Combined PnL$-3.7K

Packers — 33%Lions — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Lions. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePackers 50% · 4

Diverging

sharpLions 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrPackers 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Lions 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormakeCTR	Packersavg 48.7¢	$21.9K	$20.0K	$-1.9K	55% 3052-2477 (5529)
MO mooseborzoii	Lionsavg 48¢	$17.7K	$18.1K	$-1.7K	50% 1022-1020 (2042)
UP UpTheBlues	Lionsavg 49¢	$17.3K	$17.3K	$-1.9K	68% 31694-15247 (46941)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Lionsavg 51.4¢	$4.1K	$4.1K	-$34.12	55% 12364-10168 (22532)
└ Lions leg	Lionsavg 51.4¢	$2.4K	$2.2K	-$110.24
└ Packers leg	Packersavg 48.9¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$76.12
RN1ARB<$100	Lionsavg 51¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	-$25.62	55% 44235-36462 (80697)
└ Lions leg	Lionsavg 51¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$12.7
└ Packers leg	Packersavg 50¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$38.32
StudyPredictionCTR	Packersavg 51.4¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$14.91	51% 3660-3515 (7175)
SB sbimbgCTR	Packersavg 42.8¢	$776.96	$925.24	+$148.28	65% 2268-1215 (3483)
NA NatoAlfista	Lionsavg 57¢	$586.53	$504.21	-$82.32	65% 2863-1511 (4374)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Lionsavg 49¢	$94.08	$94.08	+$0	75% 2676-912 (3588)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Lionsavg 50¢	$38.18	$38.69	+$0.51	52% 6930-6299 (13229)
RL RLWG<$100	Lionsavg 50¢	$2.5	$2.45	-$0.05	51% 4121-3969 (8090)

takeormakeCTR

Packers

Invested

$21,905.86

Value

$20.0K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

55%

3052-2477 (5529)

mooseborzoii

Lions

Invested

$17,740.55

Value

$18.1K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

50%

1022-1020 (2042)

UpTheBlues

Lions

Invested

$17,301.67

Value

$17.3K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

68%

31694-15247 (46941)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Lions

Invested

$4,108.79

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$34.12

Record

55%

12364-10168 (22532)

Both legs:

Lions$2,356.251.4¢-$110.24

Packers$1,752.5948.9¢+$76.12

RN1ARB<$100

Lions

Invested

$2,587.23

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$25.62

Record

55%

44235-36462 (80697)

Both legs:

Lions$1,300.0451¢+$12.7

Packers$1,287.1950¢-$38.32

StudyPredictionCTR

Packers

Invested

$1,795.18

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$14.91

Record

51%

3660-3515 (7175)

sbimbgCTR

Packers

Invested

$776.96

Value

$925.24

PnL

+$148.28

Record

65%

2268-1215 (3483)

NatoAlfista

Lions

Invested

$586.53

Value

$504.21

PnL

-$82.32

Record

65%

2863-1511 (4374)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Lions

Invested

$94.08

Value

$94.08

PnL

+$0

Record

75%

2676-912 (3588)

justaluckydude<$100

Lions

Invested

$38.18

Value

$38.69

PnL

+$0.51

Record

52%

6930-6299 (13229)

RLWG<$100

Lions

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.45

PnL

-$0.05

Record

51%

4121-3969 (8090)

Research grade

NeutralLions at 56%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Lions

6 of 9 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Lions. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePackers 50% · 4

Diverging

sharpLions 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrPackers 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Lions 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lions wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.