Spread: Lions (-2.5)

5 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Lions (31%) · Lions at 73¢ · $32K held · ended Oct 25

Lions73¢Packers27¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lions

Consensus Traders

Lions 31%

Total Value

$31.8K

Combined PnL

$571.25

Smart Money Entry

61.6¢ → 73¢

+18% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralLions at 73%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lions

5 of 16 top traders (31%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Lions73%

Packers27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lions5 traders

Total Value$22.2K

Total Shares34,402

Combined PnL+$342.69

Packers11 traders

Total Value$9.6K

Total Shares27,055

Combined PnL+$228.56

Lions — 31%Packers — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

31% of non-arb traders are on Lions. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePackers 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpPackers 100% · 2

Diverging

sniperLions 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPackers 64% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedPackers 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Packers 64% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WO wollao	Lionsavg 61.8¢	$20.0K	$20.9K	+$216.33	— 4-3 (7)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Packersavg 38¢	$3.7K	$4.4K	+$684.46	55% 12364-10168 (22532)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Packersavg 38.3¢	$2.5K	$2.3K	-$178.27	67% 3553-1713 (5266)
VeryLucky888CTR	Packersavg 38.1¢	$3.9K	$1.1K	-$67	58% 32272-23432 (55704)
JU justaluckydude	Lionsavg 57¢	$636.03	$711.74	+$75.71	52% 6930-6299 (13229)
StudyPredictionCTR	Packersavg 39¢	$780	$710	-$70	51% 3660-3515 (7175)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Packersavg 39¢	$585	$532.5	-$22.5	51% 1023-977 (2000)
AV averagejoetraders	Lionsavg 57¢	$295	$333.82	+$38.82	56% 477-368 (845)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Packersavg 45.3¢	$405.83	$318.08	-$87.75	68% 31694-15247 (46941)
AD adururu	Lionsavg 61.8¢	$142.49	$148.65	+$6.16	54% 308-258 (566)
OX oxe78sh4w98	Lionsavg 62¢	$140.69	$146.36	+$5.67	52% 232-213 (445)
GO goldmynameCTR	Packersavg 39¢	$433.72	$111.29	-$18.96	67% 87-43 (130)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Packersavg 39.3¢	$50.35	$45.44	-$4.91	54% 14075-11776 (25851)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Packersavg 41.6¢	$33.44	$28.55	-$4.89	55% 3052-2477 (5529)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Packersavg 38¢	$21.28	$19.88	-$1.4	56% 6426-5142 (11568)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Packersavg 40¢	$4.4	$4.18	-$0.22	75% 2676-912 (3588)

wollao

Lions

Invested

$20,000

Value

$20.9K

PnL

+$216.33

Record

—

4-3 (7)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Packers

Invested

$3,733.42

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$684.46

Record

55%

12364-10168 (22532)

SunlineTickerCTR

Packers

Invested

$2,452.05

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$178.27

Record

67%

3553-1713 (5266)

VeryLucky888CTR

Packers

Invested

$3,883.44

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$67

Record

58%

32272-23432 (55704)

justaluckydude

Lions

Invested

$636.03

Value

$711.74

PnL

+$75.71

Record

52%

6930-6299 (13229)

StudyPredictionCTR

Packers

Invested

$780

Value

$710

PnL

-$70

Record

51%

3660-3515 (7175)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Packers

Invested

$585

Value

$532.5

PnL

-$22.5

Record

51%

1023-977 (2000)

averagejoetraders

Lions

Invested

$295

Value

$333.82

PnL

+$38.82

Record

56%

477-368 (845)

UpTheBluesCTR

Packers

Invested

$405.83

Value

$318.08

PnL

-$87.75

Record

68%

31694-15247 (46941)

adururu

Lions

Invested

$142.49

Value

$148.65

PnL

+$6.16

Record

54%

308-258 (566)

oxe78sh4w98

Lions

Invested

$140.69

Value

$146.36

PnL

+$5.67

Record

52%

232-213 (445)

goldmynameCTR

Packers

Invested

$433.72

Value

$111.29

PnL

-$18.96

Record

67%

87-43 (130)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$50.35

Value

$45.44

PnL

-$4.91

Record

54%

14075-11776 (25851)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$33.44

Value

$28.55

PnL

-$4.89

Record

55%

3052-2477 (5529)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$21.28

Value

$19.88

PnL

-$1.4

Record

56%

6426-5142 (11568)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$4.4

Value

$4.18

PnL

-$0.22

Record

75%

2676-912 (3588)

Research grade

NeutralLions at 73%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Lions

5 of 16 top traders (31%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

31% of non-arb traders are on Lions. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePackers 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpPackers 100% · 2

Diverging

sniperLions 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPackers 64% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedPackers 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Packers 64% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lions wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.0%

73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$33.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

133.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.