Spread: Lions (-1.5)

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Lions (63%) · Lions at 83¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 25

Lions83¢Packers17¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lions

Consensus Traders

Lions 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.5K

Combined PnL

$217.8

Smart Money Entry

62.7¢ → 83¢

+32% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralLions at 83%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lions

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Lions83%

Packers17%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Packers3 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares3,273

Combined PnL+$535.13

Lions5 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,793

Combined PnL-$317.33

Packers — 38%Lions — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Lions. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Packers) and the top 1000 (5 on Lions) disagree here.

whalePackers 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpLions 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrLions 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedPackers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Lions 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Lionsavg 52.2¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	-$136.75	52% 6989-6369 (13358)
└ Lions leg	Lionsavg 52.2¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$100.29
└ Packers leg	Packersavg 54.2¢	$731.86	$695.39	-$36.46
RN1CTR	Packersavg 47¢	$1.4K	$1.9K	+$563.25	55% 44397-36651 (81048)
SU SunlineTicker	Lionsavg 62.9¢	$1.2K	$898.18	-$255.45	67% 3569-1722 (5291)
AV averagejoetraders	Lionsavg 60¢	$300	$245	-$55	57% 483-369 (852)
AD adururu	Lionsavg 65¢	$149.99	$171.92	+$21.92	54% 314-263 (577)
TA takeormakeCTR	Packersavg 48.7¢	$160.51	$124.65	-$35.87	55% 3072-2497 (5569)
OX oxe78sh4w98	Lionsavg 65¢	$143.38	$108.08	-$35.29	52% 239-220 (459)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Packersavg 38¢	$23.56	$31	+$7.75	54% 14164-11846 (26010)
0X 0xfC0847fe2Ea938D6e2624650eB29eF8d8142A137-1771999665274<$100	Lionsavg 45.7¢	$13.81	$5.9	+$6.49	55% 396-321 (717)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Lions

Invested

$2,136.7

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$136.75

Record

52%

6989-6369 (13358)

Both legs:

Lions$1,404.8552.2¢-$100.29

Packers$731.8654.2¢-$36.46

RN1CTR

Packers

Invested

$1,370.41

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$563.25

Record

55%

44397-36651 (81048)

SunlineTicker

Lions

Invested

$1,153.64

Value

$898.18

PnL

-$255.45

Record

67%

3569-1722 (5291)

averagejoetraders

Lions

Invested

$300

Value

$245

PnL

-$55

Record

57%

483-369 (852)

adururu

Lions

Invested

$149.99

Value

$171.92

PnL

+$21.92

Record

54%

314-263 (577)

takeormakeCTR

Packers

Invested

$160.51

Value

$124.65

PnL

-$35.87

Record

55%

3072-2497 (5569)

oxe78sh4w98

Lions

Invested

$143.38

Value

$108.08

PnL

-$35.29

Record

52%

239-220 (459)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$23.56

Value

$31

PnL

+$7.75

Record

54%

14164-11846 (26010)

0xfC0847fe2Ea938D6e2624650eB29eF8d8142A137-1771999665274<$100

Lions

Invested

$13.81

Value

$5.9

PnL

+$6.49

Record

55%

396-321 (717)

Research grade

NeutralLions at 83%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Lions

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Lions. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Packers) and the top 1000 (5 on Lions) disagree here.

whalePackers 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpLions 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrLions 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedPackers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Lions 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lions wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.7%

83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.