Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Lions, while the market favors Packers (99%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Lions (-14.5)

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Lions (67%) · Lions at 1.5¢ · $378 held · ended Oct 25

Lions2¢Packers98¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Lions

Consensus Traders

Lions 67%

Total Value

$378.33

Combined PnL

-$37.04

Smart Money Entry

21.9¢ → 1.5¢

-93% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidLions at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lions

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Packers 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Lions2%

Packers99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lions4 traders

Total Value$343.89

Total Shares1,726

Combined PnL-$37.52

Packers2 traders

Total Value$34.44

Total Shares41

Combined PnL+$0.48

Lions — 67%Packers — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Lions. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLions 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpPackers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrLions 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedLions 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Lions 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Lionsavg 22.5¢	$172.25	$161.33	-$10.92	55% 44397-36651 (81048)
AV averagejoetradersCTR	Lionsavg 21¢	$105	$105	+$0	57% 483-369 (852)
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR<$100	Lionsavg 21.6¢	$51.66	$50.11	-$1.55	52% 239-220 (459)
AD adururuCTR<$100	Lionsavg 22¢	$52.5	$27.44	-$25.06	54% 314-263 (577)
SE seeeeeeb<$100	Packersavg 84¢	$24.36	$24.36	+$0	48% 354-376 (730)
US User7429<$100	Packersavg 80¢	$9.6	$10.08	+$0.48	58% 6149-4540 (10689)

RN1CTR

Lions

Invested

$172.25

Value

$161.33

PnL

-$10.92

Record

55%

44397-36651 (81048)

averagejoetradersCTR

Lions

Invested

$105

Value

$105

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

483-369 (852)

oxe78sh4w98CTR<$100

Lions

Invested

$51.66

Value

$50.11

PnL

-$1.55

Record

52%

239-220 (459)

adururuCTR<$100

Lions

Invested

$52.5

Value

$27.44

PnL

-$25.06

Record

54%

314-263 (577)

seeeeeeb<$100

Packers

Invested

$24.36

Value

$24.36

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

354-376 (730)

User7429<$100

Packers

Invested

$9.6

Value

$10.08

PnL

+$0.48

Record

58%

6149-4540 (10689)

Research grade

AvoidLions at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Lions

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Packers 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Lions. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLions 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpPackers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrLions 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedLions 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Lions 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lions wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.6%

1.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3714.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

3814.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.