Spread: Packers (-6.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Lions (60%) · Lions at 88¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Lions
5
Lions 60%
$1.7K
-$117
79.7¢ → 88¢
+10% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralLions at 88%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Lions. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO forecastication4 | Lionsavg 80¢ | $760.24 | $836.26 | +$9.5 | 48% 942-1012 (1954) |
 RN1 | Lionsavg 79¢ | $376.19 | $419.05 | +$42.86 | 55% 44235-36462 (80697) |
NE neymar1CTR | Packersavg 20¢ | $444.4 | $266.64 | -$177.76 | 33% 302-623 (925) |
FO Forecastication2CTR | Packersavg 19¢ | $99.56 | $104.8 | +$0 | 61% 4694-2945 (7639) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Lionsavg 80.4¢ | $89.28 | $97.68 | +$8.4 | 54% 14075-11776 (25851) |
Invested
$760.24
Value
$836.26
PnL
+$9.5
Record
48%
942-1012 (1954)
RN1Invested
$376.19
Value
$419.05
PnL
+$42.86
Record
55%
44235-36462 (80697)
Invested
$444.4
Value
$266.64
PnL
-$177.76
Record
33%
302-623 (925)
Invested
$99.56
Value
$104.8
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
4694-2945 (7639)
Invested
$89.28
Value
$97.68
PnL
+$8.4
Record
54%
14075-11776 (25851)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.