Packers vs. Lions
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Lions (60%) · Lions at 64¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Lions
5
Lions 60%
$2.7K
$7.69
63.7¢ → 63.5¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralLions at 64%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Lions. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JA JAMJAMJAM4 | Lionsavg 64¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$0 | 82% 3242-717 (3959) |
AA aaabbbCTR | Packersavg 37¢ | $370 | $370 | +$0 | 50% 433-429 (862) |
0X 0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3CTR | Packersavg 37¢ | $194.73 | $194.73 | -$2.63 | 44% 350-447 (797) |
DA darkumbreon88<$100 | Lionsavg 58.5¢ | $64.54 | $70.64 | +$5.55 | 65% 1533-821 (2354) |
0X 0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be<$100 | Lionsavg 50¢ | $17.68 | $22.45 | +$4.77 | 49% 303-317 (620) |
Invested
$2,000
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$0
Record
82%
3242-717 (3959)
Invested
$370
Value
$370
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
433-429 (862)
Invested
$194.73
Value
$194.73
PnL
-$2.63
Record
44%
350-447 (797)
Invested
$64.54
Value
$70.64
PnL
+$5.55
Record
65%
1533-821 (2354)
Invested
$17.68
Value
$22.45
PnL
+$4.77
Record
49%
303-317 (620)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.