Broncos vs. Cardinals: O/U 44.5
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 52¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 75%
$3.1K
-$36.83
52.2¢ → 52¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 52%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 53.3¢ | $1.0K | $982.69 | -$25.08 | 55% 12316-10142 (22458) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 51¢ | $1.5K | $699.43 | -$0.78 | 58% 32113-23268 (55381) |
 ComingBackCTR | Overavg 45¢ | $500 | $499.94 | -$0.06 | 62% 3703-2249 (5952) |
 0xheavy888 | Underavg 51.6¢ | $368.43 | $360.38 | -$8.05 | 56% 6406-5129 (11535) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Underavg 52¢ | $326.9 | $323.76 | -$3.14 | 59% 14139-9811 (23950) |
 RN1CTR | Overavg 48¢ | $171.79 | $173.58 | +$1.79 | 55% 44092-36295 (80387) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $28.62 | $27.27 | -$1.35 | 54% 13985-11704 (25689) |
MD mde4life1986<$100 | Underavg 52¢ | $5.41 | $5.26 | -$0.16 | 49% 118-124 (242) |
Invested
$1,007.77
Value
$982.69
PnL
-$25.08
Record
55%
12316-10142 (22458)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,530
Value
$699.43
PnL
-$0.78
Record
58%
32113-23268 (55381)
ComingBackCTRInvested
$500
Value
$499.94
PnL
-$0.06
Record
62%
3703-2249 (5952)
0xheavy888Invested
$368.43
Value
$360.38
PnL
-$8.05
Record
56%
6406-5129 (11535)
Invested
$326.9
Value
$323.76
PnL
-$3.14
Record
59%
14139-9811 (23950)
RN1CTRInvested
$171.79
Value
$173.58
PnL
+$1.79
Record
55%
44092-36295 (80387)
Invested
$28.62
Value
$27.27
PnL
-$1.35
Record
54%
13985-11704 (25689)
Invested
$5.41
Value
$5.26
PnL
-$0.16
Record
49%
118-124 (242)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.