Broncos vs. Cardinals: O/U 42.5

7 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Over (41%) · Over at 56¢ · $163K held · ends Oct 25

Over56¢Under44¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 41%

Total Value

$163.2K

Combined PnL

$433.84

Smart Money Entry

53.9¢ → 55.5¢

+3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 56%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 17 top traders (41%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over56%

Under45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$94.2K

Total Shares172,893

Combined PnL+$965.25

Under10 traders

Total Value$69.0K

Total Shares151,849

Combined PnL-$531.4

Over — 41%Under — 59%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 80% · 5

Diverging

sharpOver 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrUnder 88% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 62% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KC Kch-Temp	Overavg 53.9¢	$88.1K	$89.0K	+$933.1	51% 191-182 (373)
SB sbimbgCTR	Underavg 46¢	$23.0K	$22.7K	-$250	64% 2180-1208 (3388)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 45.7¢	$16.9K	$16.9K	-$90.45	55% 12118-9997 (22115)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Underavg 45.9¢	$15.6K	$15.5K	-$130	47% 1978-2210 (4188)
MO mooseborzoiiCTR	Underavg 45¢	$7.4K	$7.4K	+$83.17	50% 1012-1005 (2017)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 45.7¢	$4.9K	$4.7K	-$126.78	58% 31667-22925 (54592)
JA JAMJAMJAM4	Overavg 53¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$75.4	82% 3264-718 (3982)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN	Overavg 55¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$12.6	54% 872-740 (1612)
SA Saber-greed	Overavg 55.8¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$25.42	59% 2264-1576 (3840)
PL pltrkr111CTR	Underavg 48¢	$999.99	$937.49	-$10.42	55% 673-557 (1230)
MA manoamano	Overavg 55¢	$592.34	$586.96	-$5.38	70% 393-172 (565)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Underavg 46¢	$460	$455	-$5	69% 4268-1921 (6189)
0xheavy888CTR	Underavg 45.7¢	$179.2	$178.36	-$0.84	56% 6357-5092 (11449)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR	Underavg 46¢	$123.93	$122.58	-$1.35	66% 2853-1494 (4347)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Overavg 52¢	$71.76	$75.9	+$0.69	61% 4538-2871 (7409)
GG GGLPL<$100	Overavg 56¢	$59.85	$59.32	-$0.53	50% 617-613 (1230)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$23.61	$23.87	+$0.26	50% 7761-7812 (15573)

Kch-Temp

Over

Invested

$88,086.94

Value

$89.0K

PnL

+$933.1

Record

51%

191-182 (373)

sbimbgCTR

Under

Invested

$23,000

Value

$22.7K

PnL

-$250

Record

64%

2180-1208 (3388)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$16,943.18

Value

$16.9K

PnL

-$90.45

Record

55%

12118-9997 (22115)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Under

Invested

$15,600

Value

$15.5K

PnL

-$130

Record

47%

1978-2210 (4188)

mooseborzoiiCTR

Under

Invested

$7,365.01

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$83.17

Record

50%

1012-1005 (2017)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$4,863.53

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$126.78

Record

58%

31667-22925 (54592)

JAMJAMJAM4

Over

Invested

$1,998.1

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$75.4

Record

82%

3264-718 (3982)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN

Over

Invested

$1,386.39

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$12.6

Record

54%

872-740 (1612)

Saber-greed

Over

Invested

$1,083.2

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$25.42

Record

59%

2264-1576 (3840)

pltrkr111CTR

Under

Invested

$999.99

Value

$937.49

PnL

-$10.42

Record

55%

673-557 (1230)

manoamano

Over

Invested

$592.34

Value

$586.96

PnL

-$5.38

Record

70%

393-172 (565)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Under

Invested

$460

Value

$455

PnL

-$5

Record

69%

4268-1921 (6189)

0xheavy888CTR

Under

Invested

$179.2

Value

$178.36

PnL

-$0.84

Record

56%

6357-5092 (11449)

NatoAlfistaCTR

Under

Invested

$123.93

Value

$122.58

PnL

-$1.35

Record

66%

2853-1494 (4347)

Forecastication2<$100

Over

Invested

$71.76

Value

$75.9

PnL

+$0.69

Record

61%

4538-2871 (7409)

GGLPL<$100

Over

Invested

$59.85

Value

$59.32

PnL

-$0.53

Record

50%

617-613 (1230)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$23.61

Value

$23.87

PnL

+$0.26

Record

50%

7761-7812 (15573)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 56%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 17 top traders (41%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 80% · 5

Diverging

sharpOver 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrUnder 88% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 62% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.