Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Cardinals, while the market favors Broncos (71%). 1 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Broncos (-9.5)
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Cardinals (50%) · Cardinals at 29¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Cardinals
2
Cardinals 50%
1 arb excluded
$3.9K
$-1.2K
Research grade
AvoidCardinals at 29%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Broncos 71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1ARB<$100 | Cardinalsavg 62.2¢ | $3.5K | $2.7K | -$800.58 | 55% 44397-36651 (81048) |
| └ Cardinals leg | Cardinalsavg 62.2¢ | $3.1K | $1.4K | $-1.6K | |
| └ Broncos leg | Broncosavg 23.8¢ | $416.72 | $1.2K | +$827.95 | |
TA takeormakeCTR | Cardinalsavg 64¢ | $2.5K | $1.1K | $-1.2K | 55% 3072-2497 (5569) |
DE degenm | Broncosavg 71¢ | $142 | $142 | +$0 | 58% 995-710 (1705) |
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$3,467.53
Value
$2.7K
PnL
-$800.58
Record
55%
44397-36651 (81048)
Both legs:
Invested
$2,460.99
Value
$1.1K
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
55%
3072-2497 (5569)
Invested
$142
Value
$142
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
995-710 (1705)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
29.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.