Spread: Broncos (-8.5)

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Cardinals (75%) · Cardinals at 62¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25

Broncos38¢Cardinals62¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Cardinals

Consensus Traders

Cardinals 75%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$138.82

Smart Money Entry

58¢ → 62¢

+7% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralCardinals at 62%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cardinals

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Broncos38%

Cardinals62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cardinals3 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares3,437

Combined PnL+$138.97

Broncos1 trader

Total Value$1.9

Total Shares5

Combined PnL-$0.15

Cardinals — 75%Broncos — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Cardinalsavg 57.9¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$139.57	55% 44235-36462 (80697)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Cardinalsavg 64¢	$28.16	$27.28	-$0.88	54% 14075-11776 (25851)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Cardinalsavg 58¢	$4.14	$4.43	+$0.29	55% 12364-10168 (22532)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Broncosavg 41¢	$2.05	$1.9	-$0.15	52% 6930-6299 (13229)

RN1

Cardinals

Invested

$1,959.73

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$139.57

Record

55%

44235-36462 (80697)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$28.16

Value

$27.28

PnL

-$0.88

Record

54%

14075-11776 (25851)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$4.14

Value

$4.43

PnL

+$0.29

Record

55%

12364-10168 (22532)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Broncos

Invested

$2.05

Value

$1.9

PnL

-$0.15

Record

52%

6930-6299 (13229)

Research grade

NeutralCardinals at 62%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Cardinals

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cardinals wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.2%

62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$55.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

155.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.