Spread: Broncos (-7.5)
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Cardinals (33%) · Cardinals at 77¢ · $42K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Cardinals
6
Cardinals 33%
$42.2K
$-1.0K
59¢ → 76.5¢
+30% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralCardinals at 77%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KA KaneAnalytics | Cardinalsavg 59¢ | $36.1K | $36.7K | -$918.28 | 53% 321-282 (603) |
 RN1CTR | Broncosavg 41¢ | $3.2K | $3.1K | -$53.69 | 55% 44235-36462 (80697) |
 Nooserac | Cardinalsavg 59¢ | $2.0K | $2.1K | -$51.52 | 52% 5312-4889 (10201) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Broncosavg 44.6¢ | $278.45 | $257.3 | -$21.15 | 55% 12364-10168 (22532) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100 | Broncosavg 36¢ | $18 | $20 | +$2 | 52% 6930-6299 (13229) |
 StudyPredictionCTR<$100 | Broncosavg 37¢ | $0.66 | $0.72 | +$0.05 | 51% 3660-3515 (7175) |
Invested
$36,121.26
Value
$36.7K
PnL
-$918.28
Record
53%
321-282 (603)
RN1CTRInvested
$3,169.28
Value
$3.1K
PnL
-$53.69
Record
55%
44235-36462 (80697)
NooseracInvested
$2,026.65
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$51.52
Record
52%
5312-4889 (10201)
Invested
$278.45
Value
$257.3
PnL
-$21.15
Record
55%
12364-10168 (22532)
Invested
$18
Value
$20
PnL
+$2
Record
52%
6930-6299 (13229)
StudyPredictionCTR<$100Invested
$0.66
Value
$0.72
PnL
+$0.05
Record
51%
3660-3515 (7175)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.