Spread: Broncos (-6.5)
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Cardinals (50%) · Cardinals at 70¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Cardinals
4
Cardinals 50%
1 arb excluded
$1.6K
-$230.25
56.5¢ → 69.5¢
+23% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralCardinals at 70%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU SunlineTicker | Cardinalsavg 57¢ | $1.1K | $957.12 | -$179.46 | 67% 3553-1713 (5266) |
UP UpTheBlues | Cardinalsavg 54.9¢ | $388.98 | $339.84 | -$49.14 | 68% 31694-15247 (46941) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR | Broncosavg 53¢ | $179.14 | $175.76 | -$3.38 | 52% 6930-6299 (13229) |
TA takeormakeARB<$100 | Broncosavg 52.6¢ | $63.56 | $59.64 | -$3.92 | 55% 3052-2477 (5529) |
| └ Broncos leg | Broncosavg 52.6¢ | $39.48 | $39 | -$0.48 | |
| └ Cardinals leg | Cardinalsavg 56¢ | $24.08 | $20.64 | -$3.44 | |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Broncosavg 47.6¢ | $18.86 | $20.59 | +$1.73 | 55% 44235-36462 (80697) |
Invested
$1,136.58
Value
$957.12
PnL
-$179.46
Record
67%
3553-1713 (5266)
Invested
$388.98
Value
$339.84
PnL
-$49.14
Record
68%
31694-15247 (46941)
Invested
$179.14
Value
$175.76
PnL
-$3.38
Record
52%
6930-6299 (13229)
Invested
$63.56
Value
$59.64
PnL
-$3.92
Record
55%
3052-2477 (5529)
Both legs:
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$18.86
Value
$20.59
PnL
+$1.73
Record
55%
44235-36462 (80697)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.