Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Broncos, while the market favors Cardinals (64%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Broncos (-5.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Broncos (67%) · Broncos at 37¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Broncos
6
Broncos 67%
1 arb excluded
$10.1K
$206.57
46¢ → 36.5¢
-21% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralBroncos at 37%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Cardinals 64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Broncosavg 50.8¢ | $3.1K | $3.1K | -$21.35 | 55% 12364-10168 (22532) |
| └ Broncos leg | Broncosavg 50.8¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | -$32.18 | |
| └ Cardinals leg | Cardinalsavg 49.5¢ | $988.26 | $999.09 | +$10.83 | |
LI lightotunnel35 | Cardinalsavg 48.6¢ | $2.9K | $3.0K | -$126.21 | 57% 37-28 (65) |
 RN1CTR | Broncosavg 44.7¢ | $2.5K | $2.8K | +$309.49 | 55% 44235-36462 (80697) |
SU SunlineTickerCTR | Broncosavg 47¢ | $857.28 | $912 | +$54.72 | 67% 3553-1713 (5266) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR | Broncosavg 58¢ | $227.94 | $196.5 | -$31.44 | 52% 6930-6299 (13229) |
TA takeormakeCTR<$100 | Broncosavg 49¢ | $7.35 | $7.5 | +$0.15 | 55% 3052-2477 (5529) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Cardinalsavg 53¢ | $2.65 | $2.5 | -$0.15 | 51% 4121-3969 (8090) |
Invested
$3,136.91
Value
$3.1K
PnL
-$21.35
Record
55%
12364-10168 (22532)
Both legs:
Invested
$2,943.82
Value
$3.0K
PnL
-$126.21
Record
57%
37-28 (65)
RN1CTRInvested
$2,522.04
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$309.49
Record
55%
44235-36462 (80697)
Invested
$857.28
Value
$912
PnL
+$54.72
Record
67%
3553-1713 (5266)
Invested
$227.94
Value
$196.5
PnL
-$31.44
Record
52%
6930-6299 (13229)
Invested
$7.35
Value
$7.5
PnL
+$0.15
Record
55%
3052-2477 (5529)
Invested
$2.65
Value
$2.5
PnL
-$0.15
Record
51%
4121-3969 (8090)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.