Spread: Broncos (-3.5)

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Broncos (25%) · Broncos at 54¢ · $16K held · ended Oct 25

Broncos54¢Cardinals46¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Broncos

Consensus Traders

Broncos 25%

Total Value

$16.1K

Combined PnL

$1.9K

Research grade

NeutralBroncos at 54%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Broncos

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Broncos54%

Cardinals46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Broncos1 trader

Total Value$15.0K

Total Shares27,778

Combined PnL+$1.9K

Cardinals3 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,480

Combined PnL-$26.6

Broncos — 25%Cardinals — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WO wollao	Broncosavg 54¢	$13.1K	$15.0K	+$1.9K	— 4-3 (7)
VeryLucky888CTR	Cardinalsavg 46.4¢	$980.43	$951.73	-$28.7	58% 32272-23432 (55704)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Cardinalsavg 46¢	$159.2	$156.5	-$2.7	52% 6930-6299 (13229)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Cardinalsavg 38¢	$22.8	$27.6	+$4.8	55% 12364-10168 (22532)

wollao

Broncos

Invested

$13,055.53

Value

$15.0K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

—

4-3 (7)

VeryLucky888CTR

Cardinals

Invested

$980.43

Value

$951.73

PnL

-$28.7

Record

58%

32272-23432 (55704)

justaluckydudeCTR

Cardinals

Invested

$159.2

Value

$156.5

PnL

-$2.7

Record

52%

6930-6299 (13229)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$22.8

Value

$27.6

PnL

+$4.8

Record

55%

12364-10168 (22532)

Research grade

NeutralBroncos at 54%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Broncos

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Broncos wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.2%

54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$77.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

177.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.