Spread: Broncos (-2.5)
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Broncos (67%) · Broncos at 75¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Broncos
3
Broncos 67%
$1.7K
$102.63
70.4¢ → 75¢
+6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralBroncos at 75%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CH chiefphi | Broncosavg 70.8¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$83.54 | 55% 64-52 (116) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Cardinalsavg 37¢ | $115.75 | $123.14 | +$7.39 | 58% 32399-23548 (55947) |
SU SunlineTicker<$100 | Broncosavg 62¢ | $55.8 | $67.5 | +$11.7 | 67% 3569-1722 (5291) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.