Spread: Broncos (-13.5)
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Cardinals (75%) · Cardinals at 51¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Cardinals
4
Cardinals 75%
2 arb excluded
$6.7K
$443.44
49¢ → 51¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralCardinals at 51%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Cardinalsavg 49¢ | $2.6K | $3.0K | +$374.82 | 55% 44397-36651 (81048) |
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100 | Broncosavg 52.9¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$70.87 | 52% 6989-6369 (13358) |
| └ Broncos leg | Broncosavg 52.9¢ | $968.57 | $1.2K | +$185.59 | |
| └ Cardinals leg | Cardinalsavg 44.4¢ | $687.48 | $572.76 | -$114.72 | |
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Cardinalsavg 42¢ | $756.12 | $694.19 | -$61.93 | 55% 12469-10246 (22715) |
| └ Cardinals leg | Cardinalsavg 42¢ | $613.44 | $526.25 | -$87.19 | |
| └ Broncos leg | Broncosavg 54.4¢ | $142.68 | $167.94 | +$25.26 | |
AN Anon455 | Cardinalsavg 50¢ | $500 | $560 | +$60 | 56% 2094-1661 (3755) |
TA takeormake | Cardinalsavg 48¢ | $423.84 | $494.48 | +$70.64 | 55% 3072-2497 (5569) |
DE degenmCTR | Broncosavg 54.9¢ | $312.11 | $250.1 | -$62.01 | 58% 995-710 (1705) |
RN1Invested
$2,623.71
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$374.82
Record
55%
44397-36651 (81048)
Invested
$1,656.05
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$70.87
Record
52%
6989-6369 (13358)
Both legs:
Invested
$756.12
Value
$694.19
PnL
-$61.93
Record
55%
12469-10246 (22715)
Both legs:
Invested
$500
Value
$560
PnL
+$60
Record
56%
2094-1661 (3755)
Invested
$423.84
Value
$494.48
PnL
+$70.64
Record
55%
3072-2497 (5569)
Invested
$312.11
Value
$250.1
PnL
-$62.01
Record
58%
995-710 (1705)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.