Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Broncos, while the market favors Cardinals (58%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Broncos (-10.5)
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Broncos (100%) · Broncos at 42¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Broncos
3
Broncos 100%
1 arb excluded
$6.4K
-$422.99
63.2¢ → 42¢
-34% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralBroncos at 42%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Cardinals 58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1ARB<$100 | Cardinalsavg 57.4¢ | $5.4K | $5.4K | -$24.92 | 55% 44397-36651 (81048) |
| └ Cardinals leg | Cardinalsavg 57.4¢ | $4.2K | $4.3K | +$41.25 | |
| └ Broncos leg | Broncosavg 44.5¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$66.17 | |
JU justaluckydudeCTR | Broncosavg 62.8¢ | $1.2K | $822.62 | -$330.29 | 52% 6989-6369 (13358) |
DE degenmCTR | Broncosavg 65¢ | $260 | $168 | -$92 | 58% 995-710 (1705) |
TA takeormakeCTR<$100 | Broncosavg 56¢ | $2.8 | $2.1 | -$0.7 | 55% 3072-2497 (5569) |
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$5,414.06
Value
$5.4K
PnL
-$24.92
Record
55%
44397-36651 (81048)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,152.91
Value
$822.62
PnL
-$330.29
Record
52%
6989-6369 (13358)
Invested
$260
Value
$168
PnL
-$92
Record
58%
995-710 (1705)
Invested
$2.8
Value
$2.1
PnL
-$0.7
Record
55%
3072-2497 (5569)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.