Broncos vs. Cardinals

12 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Broncos (55%) · Broncos at 69¢ · $229K held · ended Oct 25

Broncos69¢Cardinals31¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Broncos

Consensus Traders

Broncos 55%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$228.8K

Combined PnL

$-3.5K

Smart Money Entry

69.3¢ → 68.5¢

-1% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralBroncos at 69%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Broncos

12 of 22 top traders (55%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Broncos69%

Cardinals32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Broncos12 traders

Total Value$168.8K

Total Shares244,154

Combined PnL-$716.55

Cardinals10 traders

Total Value$43.8K

Total Shares153,957

Combined PnL$-2.8K

Broncos — 55%Cardinals — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Broncos. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Cardinals) and the top 1000 (4 on Broncos) disagree here.

whaleCardinals 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrCardinals 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedCardinals 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Broncos 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Broncosavg 67¢	$81.5K	$82.1K	+$607.98	54% 540-461 (1001)
TE tennischamp	Broncosavg 71.7¢	$78.5K	$77.2K	$-1.3K	67% 223-112 (335)
WA wan123CTR	Cardinalsavg 32.7¢	$22.9K	$22.1K	-$850	40% 188-287 (475)
ET ethanazCTR	Cardinalsavg 28¢	$21.8K	$19.9K	$-1.9K	52% 547-511 (1058)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Broncosavg 68.9¢	$13.0K	$13.5K	+$566.17	56% 2060-1620 (3680)
└ Cardinals leg	Cardinalsavg 28.7¢	$6.2K	$6.8K	+$608.17
└ Broncos leg	Broncosavg 68.9¢	$6.7K	$6.7K	-$42
RN1ARB<$100	Broncosavg 70¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$2.85	55% 44092-36295 (80387)
└ Broncos leg	Broncosavg 70¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$8.88
└ Cardinals leg	Cardinalsavg 29.7¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$6.03
TA takeormake	Broncosavg 69.8¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$23.7	55% 3039-2470 (5509)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Broncosavg 72.5¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$0	51% 1015-964 (1979)
AV averagejoetraders	Broncosavg 67¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$42.52	56% 475-367 (842)
OX oxe78sh4w98	Broncosavg 69¢	$947.26	$940.4	-$6.86	52% 229-210 (439)
AD adururu	Broncosavg 69¢	$947.26	$940.4	-$6.86	54% 305-257 (562)
MO mooseborzoiiCTR	Cardinalsavg 31¢	$439.53	$446.62	+$7.09	50% 1020-1016 (2036)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Cardinalsavg 28.1¢	$428.52	$446.01	+$17.49	52% 6908-6279 (13187)
BI BillBenter2026	Broncosavg 71¢	$398.94	$390.59	-$8.35	58% 16221-11850 (28071)
DA darkumbreon88	Broncosavg 67¢	$376.83	$376.83	+$2.81	65% 1548-830 (2378)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Broncosavg 73¢	$363.62	$360.79	-$2.83	53% 12339-11044 (23383)
NE neymar1CTR	Cardinalsavg 33¢	$330	$325	-$5	33% 302-622 (924)
EF efntrickARB<$100	Cardinalsavg 29¢	$309.55	$315.54	+$5.99	48% 3476-3739 (7215)
└ Cardinals leg	Cardinalsavg 29¢	$155.15	$168.53	+$13.38
└ Broncos leg	Broncosavg 71.9¢	$154.4	$147.01	-$7.38
CH chiefphiCTR	Cardinalsavg 30¢	$300	$295	-$5	54% 62-52 (114)
VeryLucky888CTR	Cardinalsavg 33¢	$156.42	$156.52	-$2.28	58% 32113-23268 (55381)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Cardinalsavg 29¢	$145.87	$128.27	-$17.6	68% 31590-15191 (46781)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Cardinalsavg 33¢	$69.63	$68.58	-$1.05	65% 2863-1510 (4373)
HRTrading<$100	Broncosavg 70.1¢	$46.89	$46.5	-$0.39	57% 1670-1266 (2936)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Cardinalsavg 32¢	$18.23	$17.95	-$0.28	59% 14139-9811 (23950)
PA pauleta23<$100	Broncosavg 69¢	$10	$9.93	-$0.07	71% 17969-7285 (25254)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Broncos

Invested

$81,469.24

Value

$82.1K

PnL

+$607.98

Record

54%

540-461 (1001)

tennischamp

Broncos

Invested

$78,475.9

Value

$77.2K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

67%

223-112 (335)

wan123CTR

Cardinals

Invested

$22,900

Value

$22.1K

PnL

-$850

Record

40%

188-287 (475)

ethanazCTR

Cardinals

Invested

$21,812.53

Value

$19.9K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

52%

547-511 (1058)

Anon455ARB<$100

Broncos

Invested

$12,955.71

Value

$13.5K

PnL

+$566.17

Record

56%

2060-1620 (3680)

Both legs:

Cardinals$6,240.2128.7¢+$608.17

Broncos$6,715.568.9¢-$42

RN1ARB<$100

Broncos

Invested

$2,391.23

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$2.85

Record

55%

44092-36295 (80387)

Both legs:

Broncos$1,243.270¢+$8.88

Cardinals$1,148.0329.7¢-$6.03

takeormake

Broncos

Invested

$2,389.79

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$23.7

Record

55%

3039-2470 (5509)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Broncos

Invested

$2,175

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

1015-964 (1979)

averagejoetraders

Broncos

Invested

$1,921.98

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$42.52

Record

56%

475-367 (842)

oxe78sh4w98

Broncos

Invested

$947.26

Value

$940.4

PnL

-$6.86

Record

52%

229-210 (439)

adururu

Broncos

Invested

$947.26

Value

$940.4

PnL

-$6.86

Record

54%

305-257 (562)

mooseborzoiiCTR

Cardinals

Invested

$439.53

Value

$446.62

PnL

+$7.09

Record

50%

1020-1016 (2036)

justaluckydudeCTR

Cardinals

Invested

$428.52

Value

$446.01

PnL

+$17.49

Record

52%

6908-6279 (13187)

BillBenter2026

Broncos

Invested

$398.94

Value

$390.59

PnL

-$8.35

Record

58%

16221-11850 (28071)

darkumbreon88

Broncos

Invested

$376.83

Value

$376.83

PnL

+$2.81

Record

65%

1548-830 (2378)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Broncos

Invested

$363.62

Value

$360.79

PnL

-$2.83

Record

53%

12339-11044 (23383)

neymar1CTR

Cardinals

Invested

$330

Value

$325

PnL

-$5

Record

33%

302-622 (924)

efntrickARB<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$309.55

Value

$315.54

PnL

+$5.99

Record

48%

3476-3739 (7215)

Both legs:

Cardinals$155.1529¢+$13.38

Broncos$154.471.9¢-$7.38

chiefphiCTR

Cardinals

Invested

$300

Value

$295

PnL

-$5

Record

54%

62-52 (114)

VeryLucky888CTR

Cardinals

Invested

$156.42

Value

$156.52

PnL

-$2.28

Record

58%

32113-23268 (55381)

UpTheBluesCTR

Cardinals

Invested

$145.87

Value

$128.27

PnL

-$17.6

Record

68%

31590-15191 (46781)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$69.63

Value

$68.58

PnL

-$1.05

Record

65%

2863-1510 (4373)

HRTrading<$100

Broncos

Invested

$46.89

Value

$46.5

PnL

-$0.39

Record

57%

1670-1266 (2936)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$18.23

Value

$17.95

PnL

-$0.28

Record

59%

14139-9811 (23950)

pauleta23<$100

Broncos

Invested

$10

Value

$9.93

PnL

-$0.07

Record

71%

17969-7285 (25254)

Research grade

NeutralBroncos at 69%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Broncos

12 of 22 top traders (55%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Broncos. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Cardinals) and the top 1000 (4 on Broncos) disagree here.

whaleCardinals 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrCardinals 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedCardinals 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Broncos 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Broncos wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.